Market News & Analysis
Tonko Hits 96% on Kalshi as Markets Close Gap With Forecasters
Prediction markets repriced Tonko 10 points higher in 72 hours. Structural models have held at 99% for weeks, projecting a D+27.1 margin.
Casar's TX-37 Opponent Has $770. Why Not 100%?
Man City Top 4 Odds Fall to 62% After Guilty Verdict on 114 Charges
India's Ebola Odds Fall to 12% After 11,000 Travelers Screened Clean
Georgia CFP Top-4 Seed Probability Drops 21 Points in 3 Days
Leipzig's Top 4 Odds Fall 19 Points After 2-2 Start to 2026-27
Ohio State CFP Odds Hit 45% Despite Blowing 20-Point Lead to Texas
Lyon's 4-0 Win Cuts Rennes' Ligue 1 Top 4 Chances to 33%
Georgia's SEC Title Odds Hit 42% Despite Leading Preseason Poll
Man City Top 4 Odds Fall to 62% After Guilty Verdict on 114 Charges
City convicted on 114 of 115 Premier League financial charges; relegation is now priced at 18%, with sanctions ranging from points deductions to expulsion still to be determined.
Ohio State's Big Ten Title Odds Rise to 45% Despite Texas Collapse
Yamal's Ballon d'Or 2026 Odds Hit 33% as Kane's Lead Shrinks to 26
Georgia's SEC Title Odds Hit 42% Despite Leading Preseason Poll
Tonko Hits 96% on Kalshi as Markets Close Gap With Forecasters
Prediction markets repriced Tonko 10 points higher in 72 hours. Structural models have held at 99% for weeks, projecting a D+27.1 margin.
Casar's TX-37 Opponent Has $770. Why Not 100%?
Markets Price Elmano at 61% While Datafolha Shows a Dead Heat
Miller Trails by 8 in OH-07 Polls as Market Prices Him at 32%
Malkovich's Venice Win Halved Norton's Supporting Actor Odds
Norton fell from 20% to 10% in 72 hours, not from a rival in his own category. Giamatti now leads Supporting Actor at 37–39%.
Alex Saab's Guilty Plea Pushes Maduro's Google Top 5 Odds to 54%
Katy Perry Calls Trudeau 'Love of My Life,' Engagement Odds Fall to 14%
Julianne Moore Drops 9 Points in Best Actress Market After Mixed TIFF
Morgan Stanley Hits 23% in OpenAI IPO Market as Timing Risk Grows
Morgan Stanley gained 8 percentage points in three days. Its rise tracks IPO delay risk, not a real contest for Goldman's left-lead position.
Fed January 2027 Hike Odds Hit 34% After Warsh Defies Trump
Goldman Sachs Returns to 82% in OpenAI IPO Market as Senate Probe Clouds
Goldman Sachs Hits 80% to Lead OpenAI's IPO After SpaceX Win
India's Ebola Odds Fall to 12% After 11,000 Travelers Screened Clean
Markets cut India's 2026 Ebola probability 16 percentage points in three days. Zero cases found among nearly 11,000 screened arrivals despite a Congo outbreak topping 6,000 infections.
India's Ebola Probability Falls to 11% After 11,000 Travelers Screened
Ethiopia Ebola Odds Fall 18 Points as DRC Cases Top 200
ChatGPT Best AI Trading Jumps 7.7x After OpenAI Hits $1B Ad Run Rate
Ethereum $4,000 Odds Jump 8 Points After Ceiling Analysis
ETH trades at $2,722, needing a 47% rally to hit $4,000. A CryptoCompass stress-test of Standard Chartered's forecast triggered the repricing.
Ethereum Sub-$2,500 Odds Hit 42% as ETH Stalls Near $1,625
Bitcoin Below $55K by End of 2026 Falls to 23% After Treasury Rally
Ethereum Below $2,500 Odds Hit 42% as ETH Stalls Near $1,625
Hurricane Nolo Stalls 150 Miles From Hawaii as Landfall Odds Fall to 10%
Forecasters expect Nolo to turn west before reaching shore, pushing the 2026 Hawaii landfall contract down 14 points in three days. October remains.
Hurricane Lowell Hit Hawaii. Why Is the Market at 26%?
Hawaii Hit by Two Hurricanes in 2026, Market Still Prices 14%