Prediction Market Calculators

Free tools for smarter trading on Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt.

What are prediction market calculators?

Prediction market calculators help traders quickly do the math that platforms don't surface for you — true fees, expected value, fair odds stripped of vig, and real net profit after taxes. Without these tools, you're trading on incomplete information.

Each platform has a different fee structure. Kalshi charges transaction fees on both taker and maker sides that vary by contract price. PredictIt takes 10% of profits. Polymarket currently charges nothing. A position that looks identical across platforms can have meaningfully different economics once fees are factored in. The Market Fees calculator normalizes this so you're comparing apples to apples.

The Vig and Expected Value calculators solve a different problem: market prices contain a built-in house edge that distorts the implied probabilities. No-vig math strips that out so you can see what the market actually thinks the fair probability is — and whether there's a gap between that and your own estimate.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are these calculators free?

Yes, all tools on this page are completely free with no account required.

Which prediction market has the lowest fees?

Polymarket currently charges no trading fees, making it the cheapest for most trades. Kalshi’s maker fees are lower than taker fees, so limit orders cost less. PredictIt’s 10%-of-profit fee becomes significant on winning positions. Use the Market Fees calculator to compare at your specific contract price.

What’s the difference between vig and no-vig odds?

Vig (short for vigorish, also called juice or overround) is the margin built into market prices that ensures the sum of all outcomes exceeds 100%. No-vig odds remove that margin to show the market’s true probability estimate for each outcome.

What is expected value in prediction markets?

Expected value (EV) is the average outcome of a bet if you made it many times. A positive EV trade means you’re getting better odds than the true probability warrants — your edge over time. EV = (probability of winning × profit) − (probability of losing × stake).

How do I use these tools for arbitrage?

Use the Market Fees calculator to find the true cost-adjusted price on each platform, then the Odds Converter to compare formats. The Vig calculator helps identify when market prices on opposite sides of the same event don’t add up to 100% after fees — that gap is your arb window.