Arbitrage

Live Prediction Market Arbitrage Finder and Scanner

Live price gaps between Polymarket, Kalshi and other venues on the same event, with fees, liquidity and timing counted in the profit.

Verify resolution criteria before trading. Events linked across platforms may resolve differently. Settlement source, cutoff time, and tie-breakers can vary. Click any event to read each platform's rulebook.Tap any event for each platform's rulebook.

Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?Raphaël Glucksmann

Resolves Apr 30, 2027

Locked-in return

+0.6%locked in

Estimated: 22,460 shares each side, $133 profit on $22K

APY

4.7%a year

1.3% arb + 3.4% holding yield

1
Buy Yes on Polymarket$2.4K on the book, $495 for the full size
Open
2
Buy No on Kalshi$22K at this price, $22K for the full size
Open

Cost 99.1¢ plus 0.3¢ fees. One side always pays $1.00, so you keep 0.6¢ risk-free per share.

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2028 US Presidential General ElectionAndy Beshear

Resolves Nov 5, 2028

Locked-in return

+1.1%locked in

Verified: 16,725 shares each side, $131 profit on $17K

APY

4.1%a year

0.6% arb + 3.5% holding yield

1
Buy Yes on Polymarket$1.6K on the book, $338 for the full size
Open
2
Buy No on Kalshi$14K at this price, $16K for the full size
Open

Cost 98.6¢ plus 0.3¢ fees. One side always pays $1.00, so you keep 1.1¢ risk-free per share.

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2028 US Presidential Democratic NomineeJames Talarico

Resolves Aug 1, 2028

Locked-in return

+0.8%locked in

Verified: 13,349 shares each side, $74 profit on $13K

APY

4.0%a year

0.5% arb + 3.5% holding yield

1
Buy Yes on Polymarket$1.8K on the book, $257 for the full size
Open
2
Buy No on Kalshi$11K at this price, $13K for the full size
Open

Cost 98.9¢ plus 0.3¢ fees. One side always pays $1.00, so you keep 0.8¢ risk-free per share.

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Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?Marine Le Pen

Resolves Apr 30, 2027

Locked-in return

+2.0%locked in

Verified: 9,794 shares each side, $56 profit on $9.7K

APY

6.2%a year

4.4% arb + 1.8% holding yield

1
Buy Yes on Polymarket$112K on the book, $4.7K for the full size
Open
2
Buy No on Kalshi$289 at this price, $5.1K for the full size
Open

Cost 95.1¢ plus 3¢ fees. One side always pays $1.00, so you keep 1.9¢ risk-free per share.

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Get a $55 trading bonus

2028 US Presidential General ElectionJames Talarico

Resolves Nov 5, 2028

Locked-in return

+0.7%locked in

Estimated: 12,035 shares each side, $56 profit on $12K

APY

0.4%a year

0.3% arb + 0.1% holding yield

1
Buy Yes on Kalshi$235 at this price, $284 for the full size
Open
2
Buy No on Polymarket US$20K on the book, $12K for the full size
Open

Cost 99¢ plus 0.3¢ fees. One side always pays $1.00, so you keep 0.7¢ risk-free per share.

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Get a $55 trading bonus

Deposit $10, get $25

NFL Champion 2027Jacksonville Jaguars

Resolves Mar 31, 2027

Locked-in return

+0.1%locked in

Estimated: 61,848 shares each side, $47 profit on $62K

APY

0.6%a year

0.2% arb + 0.4% holding yield

1
Buy Yes on Kalshi$77K at this price, $7.2K for the full size
Open
2
Buy No on Polymarket$54K on the book, $55K for the full size
Open

Cost 98.7¢ plus 1.2¢ fees. One side always pays $1.00, so you keep 0.1¢ risk-free per share.

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2027 Pro Basketball ChampionGolden State

Resolves Jul 31, 2027

Locked-in return

+0.2%locked in

Estimated: 20,427 shares each side, $36 profit on $20K

APY

3.6%a year

0.2% arb + 3.4% holding yield

1
Buy Yes on Polymarket$511 on the book, $536 for the full size
Open
2
Buy No on Kalshi$114K at this price, $20K for the full size
Open

Cost 99.5¢ plus 0.3¢ fees. One side always pays $1.00, so you keep 0.2¢ risk-free per share.

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2027 Pro Basketball ChampionBoston

Resolves Jul 31, 2027

Locked-in return

+1.4%locked in

Estimated: 5,755 shares each side, $31 profit on $5.7K

APY

5.2%a year

1.9% arb + 3.3% holding yield

1
Buy Yes on Predict.fun$345 on the book, $352 for the full size
Open
2
Buy No on Kalshi$665 at this price, $5.4K for the full size
Open

Cost 98¢ plus 0.6¢ fees. One side always pays $1.00, so you keep 1.4¢ risk-free per share.

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How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?1 (25 bps)

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Locked-in return

+0.5%locked in

Verified: 3,954 shares each side, $17 profit on $3.9K

APY

7.1%a year

3.7% arb + 3.4% holding yield

1
Buy Yes on Polymarket$192 on the book, $93 for the full size
Open
2
Buy No on Kalshi$26K at this price, $3.8K for the full size
Open

Cost 99.2¢ plus 0.3¢ fees. One side always pays $1.00, so you keep 0.5¢ risk-free per share.

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Get a $55 trading bonus

2028 US Presidential General ElectionJon Ossoff

Resolves Nov 5, 2028

Locked-in return

+1.2%locked in

Estimated: 1,198 shares each side, $14 profit on $1.2K

APY

0.6%a year

1
Buy Yes on Predict.fun$210 on the book, $214 for the full size
Open
2
Buy No on Polymarket US$3.3K on the book, $970 for the full size
Open

Cost 97.5¢ plus 1.3¢ fees. One side always pays $1.00, so you keep 1.2¢ risk-free per share.

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By platform

Kalshi vs Polymarket arbitrage

Aguascalientes Governor Election Winner

Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez

PolymarketYes1.8¢

KalshiNo95¢

ROI+2.9%View event

Oscar Winner: Best Actor

Actor B

PolymarketYes3.8¢

KalshiNo93¢

ROI+2.6%View event

UEFA Nations League Champion

England

PolymarketYes16¢

KalshiNo80¢

ROI+2.3%View event

Polymarket vs Kalshi arbitrage is essentially exploiting contract pricing differences between the two. The pairing for arbs is popular because Kalshi and Polymarket are the two biggest platforms in the space. As they have the deepest volume and liquidity, and the widest overlap in markets, price spreads between them tend to sit in a fairly consistent 2 to 5% range for their prediction market picks on a given event.

Worked example

Chiefs vs. Ravens: Chiefs Moneyline

Kalshi offers: 'Yes' $0.62, 'No' $0.38
Polymarket offers: 'Yes' $0.65, 'No' $0.35

Buying 'Yes' on Kalshi and 'No' on Polymarket totals $0.97 ($0.62 + $0.35). Either outcome for the game would give you $0.03, or a 3.09% return.

Automating and repeating this process, at volume, is where the returns start to add up. Traders running this kind of strategy using prediction trading tools can work toward a meaningful annualized return (APY), rather than treating each gap as a one-off trade. Read more in our Polymarket vs Kalshi arbitrage guide.

Where Kalshi-Polymarket arbitrage comes from

Regulatory and user base differences

Kalshi's US-regulated, state-restricted access means its trader base (and information reflected in its prices) can differ from an open, global platform like Polymarket. Some states also can't access Kalshi (or specific markets) at all, which can leave those markets less efficiently priced simply because fewer informed traders are able to participate.

Liquidity differences

Polymarket can have deeper liquidity in categories like politics and sports, while Kalshi's regulated structure draws a different (and sometimes less overlapping) pool of traders, contributing to price gaps even in high-volume markets.

Fee structure

Kalshi uses volume-based, tiered percentage fees, while Polymarket's lower platform fees come with Polygon network gas costs on each transaction. Comparing the two requires factoring in both fee models rather than assuming one is simply 'cheaper.'

Settlement currency friction

Kalshi settles in USD, while Polymarket settles in USDC. Converting between the two, along with the withdrawal frictions involved, can create a price gap between otherwise-equivalent contracts on each platform.

Calculator

Calculate arbitrage ROI and APY

Use our prediction market arbitrage calculator to easily find out your return on investment (ROI) on your arbitrage trading. You can also scale that over time to see the longer term annual percentage yield (APY). Filter the available live trades by setting your minimum ROI and APY percentages.

Multi-outcome markets

Polymarket negative risk markets explained

A negative risk market on Polymarket links positions across all outcomes of a multi-outcome market (like elections or awards shows where there's more than two contenders, though only one eventual winner), so that betting against one outcome is economically equivalent to betting for all the others. This is also a form of prediction arbitrage, as price mismatches can mean the sum of 'Yes' prices across every outcome don't equal $1.

How to arbitrage Polymarket negative risk markets

For example, in a multi-nominee market like Best Picture, a trader might buy 'Yes' on the frontrunner nominee, then offset that position with smaller 'Yes' bets spread across two or three of the next most likely nominees. Multi-nominee award markets often have enough contracts that the sum of 'Yes' prices across all nominees drifts from totaling $1, especially closer to the ceremony as sentiment shifts, creating room for this kind of hedge.

Done correctly, this balances exposure across outcomes in a way that can lock in a profit regardless of which specific nominee wins, similar in principle to the cross-platform arbitrage described earlier, but executed entirely within Polymarket's own market structure.

The basics

What is prediction market arbitrage?

Arbitrage in prediction markets is essentially exploiting a mismatch of pricing between two prediction platforms (say, Kalshi and Polymarket) on the same event. Arbitrage happens when the combined cost of buying 'Yes' on one platform and 'No' on the other is less than $1. As all winning outcomes resolve at $1, you make a profit on the difference whatever the event outcome. This is sometimes called Dutch book arbitrage.

As an example, let's look at a market on whether Democrats will win Alaska's House seat.

Worked example

Will Democrats win Alaska's House seat?

Kalshi prices 'Yes' at 4¢
Polymarket prices 'No' at 93¢

Buying one contract of each costs 97¢ in total (4¢ + 93¢). Since exactly one side is guaranteed to resolve at $1, you lock in a 3¢ profit (though the true profit would be affected by factors like fees and price slippage, which we discuss below).

Where price gaps come from

Prediction market pricing on events should total $1 between two contracts (usually yes and no). An example pricing would be 'Yes' at 96¢ and 'No' at 4¢. However, various factors can lead to a gap in these prices between different platforms (or different contract types on the same platform):

Supply and demand

Platforms or specific markets with fewer active traders tend to have less stable pricing and lower liquidity. If Polymarket has significantly more depth (money traded) on a particular event than Kalshi, prices between the two platforms can diverge by several percentage points.

Market reaction speed

Prediction market platforms don't all reprice at the same speed when new information breaks (whether a lineup change, breaking news, or a shift in polling data). Platforms with more active traders or automated market-making typically adjust within seconds, while other platforms can take minutes to catch up. This is often where the widest (though short-lived) prediction market arbitrage gaps appear.

Timing

Even markets with generally good liquidity can thin out temporarily. This could be overnight in a platform's dominant trading time zone, or during lulls between major news cycles. With fewer active traders watching a market at certain times, a pricing gap that would normally get arbitraged away within minutes in peak hours can sit open for longer.

Fee differences

Where platforms have different pricing models, there will be an uneven overall 'cost' between platforms on the same event. For example, if Kalshi is priced at 4¢ 'Yes' and Polymarket at 93¢ 'No,' the raw arbitrage margin is 3¢ per contract pair. But if one platform charges a 2% fee on the trade value, that alone could consume 1-2¢ of the margin. A worthwhile arbitrage calculator factors these fees into its profit forecasts rather than comparing raw contract prices alone.

Mechanics

How arbitrage works

Prediction market arbitrage relies on spotting price gaps before the market corrects them, then moving fast enough to lock in a profit on both sides. Here's how it works in practice, from finding a genuine price mismatch through to executing it. You can also read more in our guide on checking for arbitrage.

1
Comparison and finding arbitrage opportunities
The starting point is comparing prices for the same event across platforms, typically by having Kalshi, Polymarket, and other prediction apps open in separate tabs to check 'Yes' and 'No' prices side by side. This sounds simple but has a few practical snags:
- Matching the exact contract: Platforms don't always phrase or structure the same event identically. 'Will the Democrats win the House?' on one platform might be split differently, resolve on a different date, or use different settlement criteria than the equivalent market elsewhere. Before comparing prices, confirm you're actually looking at the same underlying event with the same resolution terms.
- Checking legal availability: Not every platform is available in every jurisdiction, and some restrict specific market categories (sports, politics, etc.) by state. An arbitrage opportunity is only real if you can actually open positions on both platforms from your location.
2
Calculating profit
Once you've found a genuine price gap, the next step is working out whether it's actually worth trading. A raw price difference between two platforms isn't automatically a tradable gap. You need to account for:
- Fees and spread: Bid-ask spread means the price to buy and the price to sell aren't the same, and platform fees add another layer that can reduce (or even remove) the price gap.
- Slippage: The difference between the price you saw when you spotted the gap and the price you actually get when your order fills, especially in thinner markets.
- Collateral requirements: The capital tied up across both platforms until the market resolves, which affects your actual return relative to capital deployed, not just the raw profit per contract.
A gap that looks like a solid 3¢ margin on paper can shrink to near-zero or even become negative once fees, slippage, and capital costs are properly factored in.
3
Executing fast as markets converge
Because so many traders, arbitrage tools, and automated systems are actively scanning for price discrepancies, trades taken against a mispricing tend to correct it to a combined price of $1 fast. This is known as the market converging.
Genuine arbitrage windows can close within seconds or minutes of appearing, which is why speed is so important with prediction market arbs. The two trades need to happen as close to simultaneously as possible. Executing manually means having both trades fully prepared and ready to submit before you place either one. You should have the contract selected, size entered, and the order pulled up on both platforms.
There's also the risk of a partial fill. Getting 60 of 100 contracts on one leg when the other has filled leaves you with a mismatched and partially hedged position. Market orders fill faster than limit orders but carry more slippage risk (as you're accepting whatever price is available, rather than one you've set). Limit orders protect your price but might not fill if the market moves before someone takes the other side.
These mechanics are exactly why executing manually is hard, and people struggle to keep pace with how quickly genuine arbitrage windows close. Many users will opt for prediction market arbitrage scanners and bots instead.

Using arbitrage tools

Dedicated arbitrage tools like our arb engine avoid you having to manually cross-reference prices across multiple platforms, account for fees, and execute two trades simultaneously at market speed. A tool built for this can scan multiple platforms continuously, calculate fee-adjusted margins automatically, and flag or execute opportunities far faster than a manual process. This is often the difference between capturing a gap and watching it close before you can act.

Automation

Can bots find arbitrage?

Yes, prediction market arbitrage bots are able to pull feeds from the main prediction market apps to show live events with price gaps on easy to navigate dashboards. They also normalize prices into a comparable format. This avoids the need to check platforms manually, as these tools will standardize the phrasing of contracts on different apps to match them with real world events.

A good Kalshi or Polymarket arbitrage bot will also factor in fees, slippage, and other risks to show the actual live profit calculation, rather than just the price gap between markets.

Build your own with the Prediction.com API

If you're looking to try or build a bot yourself, consider our v2 API, which will give you cross platform arbitrage alerts across Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, ProphetX and others, as well as expected value, smart money, and other price flows. Read more on our guide to the best prediction market APIs.

View API docs

Before you trade

Arbitrage risks to note before trading

Arbitrage is often described as 'risk-free,' but be aware that several things can limit or remove your profit from these trades.

Resolution criteria: Two contracts that look identical can settle differently if their wording, resolution date, or source of truth differs even slightly. Always confirm both contracts resolve on the same criteria before trading. Our guide to cross-exchange arbitrage risks walks through how this goes wrong.
Liquidity: This affects whether you can first enter a trade and how cleanly it will fill. Thin markets take longer to match orders, and platforms using order books tend to offer more predictable pricing than those using automated market makers, where prices can shift with each trade.
Fees, bid-ask spread, and slippage: All eat into margin, but it's worth noting that slippage gets worse in exactly the low-liquidity conditions above. This is because large orders can exhaust the available price and push the average fill price further from what you first saw.
Execution risks: The two legs of an arbitrage trade need to happen close to simultaneously. If one fills and the other doesn't, or the second platform's price moves before you get there, you're left holding an unhedged position rather than a locked-in profit.

Finally, genuine arbitrage windows tend to be short. Markets correct quickly once other traders spot the same gap, so delays anywhere in the process can mean the opportunity closes before you finish acting on it. Always bear this in mind when you trade, and budget for what you can afford to risk.

FAQ

Prediction market arbitrage FAQs

What is prediction market arbitrage?

Prediction market arbitrage means exploiting a price mismatch between two platforms (or contracts) on the same event. When buying "Yes" on one platform and "No" on the other costs less than $1 combined, you lock in a profit regardless of the outcome, since the winning side always resolves at $1.

Can you arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket?

Yes, this is one of the most popular arbitrage pairings, since both are the largest platforms by volume and liquidity, with a wide overlap in shared markets. You can take opposing positions on a market they both offer when their combined prices are below $1.00.

What is a prediction market arbitrage scanner?

A prediction arbitrage scanner is a tool that continuously monitors multiple prediction apps to identify price differences for the same event. It flags live price gaps and calculates fee-adjusted profit, removing the need to manually cross-reference platforms yourself.

What are Polymarket negative-risk markets?

Negative-risk markets are Polymarket's mechanism for multi-outcome events with only one winner. They link positions across all outcomes, so betting against one is economically equivalent to betting for the rest.

How do you arbitrage Polymarket negative-risk markets?

You can identify mispricings in multi-outcome events where the sum of all mutually exclusive outcomes falls below $1.00.

What does yes/no sum less than 1 mean?

It means the combined price of 'Yes' and 'No' contracts on the same event totals less than $1. It's the mispricing that makes arbitrage possible. Since exactly one side always resolves at $1, buying both sides for under $1 combined guarantees a profit regardless of outcome.

Are prediction market arbitrage opportunities risk-free?

Not entirely. While prediction arbitrage aims to hedge positions and guarantee a fixed percentage, risks to profit can include mismatched resolution criteria, thin liquidity, fees, slippage, and execution timing.

Is Prediction Hunt Arbitrage available on Prediction.com?

Yes. Prediction Hunt is now Prediction.com, and the Prediction Hunt arbitrage scanner lives on this page. It is the same live scanner across Kalshi, Polymarket and other platforms, with the same filters, calculator and track record. Old predictionhunt.com links redirect here automatically.

Arbitrage

Live Prediction Market Arbitrage Finder and Scanner

Verify resolution criteria before trading. Events linked across platforms may resolve differently - settlement source, cutoff time, and tie-breakers can vary. Click any event to read each platform's rulebook.

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Nov 2, 2026

Live Prediction Market Arbitrage Finder and Scanner

Live price gaps between Polymarket, Kalshi and other venues on the same event, with fees, liquidity and timing counted in the profit.

Kalshi vs Polymarket arbitrage

Worked example

Chiefs vs. Ravens: Chiefs Moneyline

Kalshi offers: 'Yes' $0.62, 'No' $0.38
Polymarket offers: 'Yes' $0.65, 'No' $0.35

Buying 'Yes' on Kalshi and 'No' on Polymarket totals $0.97 ($0.62 + $0.35). Either outcome for the game would give you $0.03, or a 3.09% return.

Where Kalshi-Polymarket arbitrage comes from

Regulatory and user base differences

Liquidity differences

Fee structure

Settlement currency friction

Polymarket negative risk markets explained

What is prediction market arbitrage?

As an example, let's look at a market on whether Democrats will win Alaska's House seat.

How arbitrage works

Can bots find arbitrage?

A good Kalshi or Polymarket arbitrage bot will also factor in fees, slippage, and other risks to show the actual live profit calculation, rather than just the price gap between markets.

Kalshi vs Polymarket arbitrage

Where Kalshi-Polymarket arbitrage comes from

Regulatory and user base differences

Liquidity differences

Fee structure

Settlement currency friction

Polymarket arbitrage opportunities

Undervalued contracts relative to real-world probability

Spread inefficiencies across related contracts

Orders with thin liquidity before prices adjust

Kalshi arbitrage opportunities

Calculate arbitrage ROI and APY

Polymarket negative risk markets explained

How to arbitrage Polymarket negative risk markets

What is prediction market arbitrage?

Where price gaps come from

Supply and demand

Market reaction speed

Timing

Fee differences

How arbitrage works

Comparison and finding arbitrage opportunities

Calculating profit

Executing fast as markets converge

Using arbitrage tools

Can bots find arbitrage?

Build your own with the Prediction.com API

Arbitrage risks to note before trading

Prediction market arbitrage FAQs

What is prediction market arbitrage?

Can you arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket?

What is a prediction market arbitrage scanner?

What are Polymarket negative-risk markets?

How do you arbitrage Polymarket negative-risk markets?

What does yes/no sum less than 1 mean?

Are prediction market arbitrage opportunities risk-free?

Is Prediction Hunt Arbitrage available on Prediction.com?

Kalshi vs Polymarket arbitrage

Where Kalshi-Polymarket arbitrage comes from

Regulatory and user base differences

Liquidity differences

Fee structure

Settlement currency friction

Polymarket arbitrage opportunities

Undervalued contracts relative to real-world probability

Spread inefficiencies across related contracts

Orders with thin liquidity before prices adjust

Kalshi arbitrage opportunities

Calculate arbitrage ROI and APY

Polymarket negative risk markets explained

How to arbitrage Polymarket negative risk markets

What is prediction market arbitrage?

Where price gaps come from

Supply and demand

Market reaction speed

Timing

Fee differences

How arbitrage works

Comparison and finding arbitrage opportunities

Calculating profit

Executing fast as markets converge

Using arbitrage tools

Can bots find arbitrage?

Build your own with the Prediction.com API

Arbitrage risks to note before trading

Prediction market arbitrage FAQs

What is prediction market arbitrage?

Can you arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket?

What is a prediction market arbitrage scanner?

What are Polymarket negative-risk markets?

How do you arbitrage Polymarket negative-risk markets?

What does yes/no sum less than 1 mean?

Are prediction market arbitrage opportunities risk-free?

Is Prediction Hunt Arbitrage available on Prediction.com?