Live prediction market odds for 2025 Chilean Presidential Election. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
Resolved 2025-11-16
This market resolved on 2025-11-16. José Antonio Kast was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
José Antonio KastWINNER | 99% | 100% | 99% |
Carolina Tohá | 1% | 50% | — |
Jaime Mulet | 1% | 50% | — |
Eduardo Artés | 0% | 50% | — |
Marco Enríquez-Ominami | 0% | 50% | — |
Evelyn Matthei | 1% | 50% | 1% |
Franco Parisi | 1% | 50% | 1% |
Jeannette Jara | 1% | 50% | 1% |
Johannes Kaiser | 1% | 50% | 1% |
2025 Chilean Presidential Election was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). José Antonio Kast led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Carolina Tohá at 26%, Jaime Mulet at 26%, Eduardo Artés at 25%.
José Antonio Kast held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind José Antonio Kast, Carolina Tohá at 26% and Jaime Mulet at 26% and Eduardo Artés at 25% were the next closest contenders. The 50.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt: José Antonio Kast: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket, 99¢ on PredictIt. Carolina Tohá: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Jaime Mulet: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Eduardo Artés: 0¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 50.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that José Antonio Kast would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
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José Antonio Kast
99.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Jeannette Jara wins the Chilean presidency in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
If no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the first round, the market will remain open until a candidate has won the presidency.
