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Live prediction market odds for 2025 Trump Pardon. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Live prediction market odds for 2025 Trump Pardon. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2025-12-31
This market resolved on 2025-12-31. Changpeng Zhao was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Changpeng ZhaoWINNER | 99% | 100% |
George Santos | 99% | 100% |
Rudy Giuliani | 99% | 100% |
Derek Chauvin | 2% | 50% |
Elon Musk | 2% | 50% |
Eric Adams | 2% | 50% |
Hunter Biden | 2% | 50% |
Julian Assange | 2% | 50% |
Sam Bankman-Fried | 2% | 50% |
Bob Menendez | 1% | 50% |
Diddy | 1% | 50% |
Do Kwon | 1% | 50% |
Edward Snowden | 1% | 50% |
Elizabeth Holmes | 1% | 50% |
Ghislaine Maxwell | 1% | 50% |
Himself | 1% | 50% |
Roger Ver | 1% | 50% |
Steve Bannon | 1% | 50% |
Young Thug | 1% | 50% |
2025 Trump Pardon was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Changpeng Zhao led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include George Santos at 100%, Rudy Giuliani at 100%, Derek Chauvin at 26%.
Changpeng Zhao held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Changpeng Zhao, George Santos at 100% and Rudy Giuliani at 100% and Derek Chauvin at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Changpeng Zhao: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. George Santos: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Rudy Giuliani: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Derek Chauvin: 2¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Changpeng Zhao would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
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Changpeng Zhao
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the President of the United States pardons Steve Bannon before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.