Live prediction market odds for 2025 Virginia Governor Election. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2025-11-04
This market resolved on 2025-11-04. Abigail Spanberger (D) was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Abigail Spanberger (D)WINNER | 99% | 100% |
Winsome Earle-Sears (R) | 1% | 50% |
2025 Virginia Governor Election was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Abigail Spanberger (D) led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Winsome Earle-Sears (R) at 26%.
Abigail Spanberger (D) held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Abigail Spanberger (D), Winsome Earle-Sears (R) at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Abigail Spanberger (D): 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Winsome Earle-Sears (R): 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Abigail Spanberger (D) would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
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Abigail Spanberger (D)
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Virginia pursuant to the 2025 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2025 gubernatorial election. <p>Otherwise, this market closes by Nov 4, 2026 at 10:00am EST and will resolve to No for all candidates.</p> <p>Note that this event is mutually exclusive, meaning at most one market can resolve to Yes.</p>
