Live prediction market odds for 2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-15
This market resolved on 2026-03-15. The Singers was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 51%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the 2026 Oscar for Best Live Action Short Film. This award influences industry recognition and can significantly impact the careers of filmmakers and actors involved in the nominated projects.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
The SingersWINNER | 1% | 100% |
A Friend of Dorothy | 1% | 50% |
Butcher's Stain | 1% | 50% |
Jane Austen's Period Drama | 1% | 50% |
Two People Exchanging Saliva | 1% | 50% |
Nominees are chosen based on artistic merit, storytelling, and technical execution. The selection process involves voting by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Winning an Oscar can elevate a filmmaker's profile, leading to increased funding opportunities and higher-profile projects. It often results in greater visibility within the industry and among audiences.
Odds are influenced by factors such as critical acclaim, audience reception, and previous awards won by the films. Additionally, industry buzz and marketing campaigns can sway public perception and betting behavior.
2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). The Singers led the market at 51% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include A Friend of Dorothy at 26%, Butcher's Stain at 26%, Jane Austen's Period Drama at 26%.
The Singers held the lead at 51% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind The Singers, A Friend of Dorothy at 26% and Butcher's Stain at 26% and Jane Austen's Period Drama at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 99.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf A Friend of Dorothy has won best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
**This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Any references to the Academy Awards, the Oscars®, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and Kalshi.** The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.
PolymarketThe Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Singers
50.5% avg
