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PicksSmart MoneyArbitragePromos

Live prediction market odds for 2028 US Presidential Democratic Nominee. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt and Predict.fun.

Kalshi

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt / Predict.fun

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2028 US Presidential Democratic Nominee

2028-08-01

Best price · tap to trade

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15¢6.67xKalshiJon Ossoff17¢5.88xKalshiGavin Newsom14¢7.14xKalshi
Compare all 59 outcomes across 4 venues

About This Market

Traders give Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez about a 16.3% chance. Jon Ossoff follows at 15.9%, Gavin Newsom follows at 15.2%, and Kamala Harris follows at 6.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 39.0 percentage points.

Traders give Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez about a 16.3% chance. Jon Ossoff follows at 15.9%, Gavin Newsom follows at 15.2%, and Kamala Harris follows at 6.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 39.0 percentage points.

Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the race for the 2028 US Presidential Democratic Nominee. This contest is pivotal as it will determine the party's candidate in a crucial election, influenced by voter sentiment, party dynamics, and key endorsements leading up to the primaries.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Predict.fun
Best price
AO
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezARB
16%
Kalshi15¢
Polymarket19¢
PredictIt17¢
Predict.fun19¢
Kalshi6.67x15¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
14.0%14¢15¢85¢86¢
PolymarketPolymarket
18.6%19¢19¢81¢82¢
PredictItPredictIt
16.0%16¢17¢83¢84¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
18.6%19¢19¢81¢82¢
JO
Jon OssoffARB
16%
Kalshi17¢
Polymarket16¢
PredictIt19¢
Predict.fun16¢
Kalshi5.88x17¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
16.5%16¢17¢83¢84¢
PolymarketPolymarket
15.4%15¢16¢85¢85¢
PredictItPredictIt
18.0%18¢19¢81¢82¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
16.3%16¢16¢84¢84¢
GN
Gavin NewsomARB
15%
Kalshi14¢
Polymarket18¢
PredictIt15¢
Predict.fun16¢
Kalshi7.14x14¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
13.5%13¢14¢86¢87¢
PolymarketPolymarket
16.9%17¢18¢82¢83¢
PredictItPredictIt
15.0%14¢15¢85¢86¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
16.2%16¢16¢84¢84¢
KH
Kamala Harris
7%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket6¢
PredictIt8¢
Predict.fun7¢
Kalshi14.08x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.0%7¢7¢93¢93¢
PolymarketPolymarket
6.3%6¢6¢94¢94¢
PredictItPredictIt
7.0%7¢8¢92¢93¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
7.3%7¢7¢93¢93¢
JS
Josh Shapiro
5%
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket6¢
PredictIt6¢
Predict.fun5¢
Kalshi21.28x5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.7%5¢5¢95¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
6.2%6¢6¢94¢94¢
PredictItPredictIt
5.0%5¢6¢94¢95¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
5.3%5¢5¢95¢95¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictItPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the U.S. Representative for New York's 14th congressional district. She gained national attention in 2018 by defeating Democratic Caucus Chair Joe Crowley in the Democratic primary. Her progressive platform and prominence make her a notable figure in discussions about the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.

About Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff is the senior U.S. senator from Georgia, serving since January 2021. Before his election, he was CEO of Insight TWI, producing investigative documentaries. He is relevant to this prediction market as a potential candidate for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will attend the State of the Union?WONPre-event: 0%

About Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom is the Governor of California, serving his second term since 2019. He previously served as Lieutenant Governor and Mayor of San Francisco. His leadership and policy initiatives have positioned him as a prominent figure in the Democratic Party, making him a potential candidate for the 2028 U.S. Presidential election.

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will Trump talk to in JanuaryWONPre-event: 49%Who will attend the State of the Union?LOSTPre-event: 0%Who will Donald Trump talk to in March?LOSTPre-event: 3%Who will Donald Trump talk to in Apr 2026?LOSTPre-event: 6%Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?LOSTPre-event: 4%

About Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris is a former U.S. senator and attorney general from California. She served as the 49th vice president of the United States from 2021 to 2025. Harris is considering a potential candidacy for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.

About Josh Shapiro

Josh Shapiro is the current Governor of Pennsylvania, serving since January 17, 2023. Before this, he was the state's Attorney General from 2017 to 2023. His leadership in Pennsylvania and national profile make him a notable figure in the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination race.

About Andy Beshear

Andy Beshear is the current Governor of Kentucky, serving his second term after re-election in 2023. He previously served as the state's Attorney General from 2016 to 2019. Beshear has expressed interest in running for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Democratic nomination.

About Mark Kelly

Mark Kelly is the current U.S. Senator from Arizona, serving a full six-year term after his re-election in 2022. He previously served as a Navy combat pilot and NASA astronaut, commanding four space shuttle missions. His extensive military and space exploration experience makes him a notable figure in discussions about the 2028 U.S. Presidential Democratic Nominee.

About J.B. Pritzker

J.B. Pritzker is the current Governor of Illinois, serving his second term since January 9, 2023. Before his gubernatorial tenure, he was a successful businessman and philanthropist, known for his investments in technology and healthcare. His leadership in Illinois and national political involvement make him a notable candidate for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Democratic nomination.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread39.0%
Platforms4
Candidates59
Leader

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

16.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: 2028 US Presidential Democratic Nominee

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Stephen A. Smith wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Democratic nominee?

Polling data, candidate performances in debates, and endorsements from influential party figures significantly impact the odds. Additionally, shifts in public opinion and major events can lead to rapid changes in market sentiment.

How do prediction markets work for political nominations?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events, such as political nominations. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of various candidates winning the nomination.

When will the Democratic nominee be officially determined?

The official nominee will be determined at the Democratic National Convention in August 2028. Prior to that, state primaries and caucuses will play a critical role in shaping the field of candidates.

What does the 2028 US Presidential Democratic Nominee prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest 2028 US Presidential Democratic Nominee odds?

The latest available prices are Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 14.0¢ on Kalshi, 18.6¢ on Polymarket, 16.0¢ on PredictIt, 18.6¢ on Predict.fun; Jon Ossoff: 16.5¢ on Kalshi, 15.4¢ on Polymarket, 18.0¢ on PredictIt, 16.3¢ on Predict.fun; Gavin Newsom: 13.5¢ on Kalshi, 16.9¢ on Polymarket, 15.0¢ on PredictIt, 16.2¢ on Predict.fun; Kamala Harris: 7.0¢ on Kalshi, 6.3¢ on Polymarket, 7.0¢ on PredictIt, 7.3¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily fading Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Smart Money Consensus$1.4K
$1.4KNo
Smart Traders Split4
1Yes3No
KalshiBuy No at 86¢Best price among US-regulated venues.

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
No$1.4K · 3 whales
Yes-$3.0K · 1 whale
Jon Ossoff
Yes$126 · 1 whale
Gavin Newsom
No$705 · 2 whales
Yes-$210 · 0 whales

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

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Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Who will attend the State of the Union?

Resolved

2026-02-24

LOSTGavin Newsom
Pre-event: 0%

Who will Trump talk to in January

Resolved

2026-01-31

WONGavin Newsom
Pre-event: 49%

Who will Donald Trump talk to in March?

Resolved

2026-03-31

LOSTGavin Newsom
Pre-event: 3%

Who will Donald Trump talk to in Apr 2026?

Resolved

2026-04-30

LOSTGavin Newsom
Pre-event: 6%

Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?

Resolved

2026-07-31

LOSTGavin Newsom
Pre-event: 4%

Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTKamala Harris
Pre-event: 2%

#1 Searched Person on Google this year?

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTKamala Harris
Pre-event: 1%

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

Resolved

2026-06-02

LOSTKamala Harris
Pre-event: 1%

What will Trump say during the State of the Union address?

Resolved

2026-02-28

LOSTKamala Harris
Pre-event: 28%
Smart Money Feed
Full Feed

Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $22.8K lifetime sold $2.6K of Yes at 18¢

10h ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $86.8K lifetime bet $815 on No at 82¢

20h ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $10.7K lifetime sold $1.6K of No at 82¢

2d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $124K lifetime sold $2.6K of Yes at 14¢

2d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $124K lifetime sold $6.6K of Yes at 15¢

2d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Trade on Kalshi →

Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction Market Track Record

Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025LOSTPre-event: 2%#1 Searched Person on Google this year?LOSTPre-event: 1%Who will advance from the California Governor primary?LOSTPre-event: 1%What will Trump say during the State of the Union address?LOSTPre-event: 28%

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Walz 2028 Nomination Odds Fall 5pp to 15% as Volume Doubles$862K traded on Aug 22, 2.21x the weekly baseline. Kalshi prices Walz at 10%; Polymarket holds him at 20%.Aug 23, 2026Beshear Hits 36% to Lead 2028 Democratic Nomination MarketA 30-point surge in three days puts Beshear atop Polymarket despite polling sixth at 8.5% among Democratic primary voters nationally.Jun 9, 2026Beshear's 2028 Nomination Odds Drop from 36% to 6% in 72 HoursA 30-point collapse prices Beshear below his 8.5% Emerson poll share. No negative news event explains the move. Kalshi shows 4%, PredictIt shows 7%.Jun 7, 2026