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MarketsWhalesArbTrending
ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 99.0% // +$9905.00

Live prediction market odds for 2028 US Presidential Republican Nominee. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.

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Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt

2028 US Presidential Republican Nominee

2028-08-01

About This Market

Share

Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the race for the 2028 US Presidential Republican Nominee. Factors such as voter sentiment, primary debates, and candidate endorsements will heavily influence the odds as the election approaches.

Elise Stefanik leads the “2028 US Presidential Republican Nominee” event at 49.7% implied probability. Other contenders include J.D. Vance (33.7%), Marco Rubio (27.1%), Tucker Carlson (6.0%), and Ron DeSantis (4.5%). A 99.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
ES
Elise StefanikARB
50% Avg
Kalshi0¢
Polymarket99¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.0%0¢0¢100¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
99.0%99¢99¢1¢1¢
JV
J.D. VanceARB
34% Avg
Kalshi33¢
Polymarket33¢
PredictIt36¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
32.5%32¢33¢67¢68¢
PolymarketPolymarket
33.0%33¢33¢67¢67¢
PredictItPredictIt
35.5%35¢36¢64¢65¢
MR
Marco RubioARB
27% Avg
Kalshi30¢
Polymarket23¢
PredictIt28¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
29.5%29¢30¢70¢71¢
PolymarketPolymarket
23.0%23¢23¢77¢77¢
PredictItPredictIt
27.5%27¢28¢72¢73¢
TC
Tucker Carlson
6% Avg
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
6.0%6¢6¢94¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
6.0%6¢6¢94¢94¢
RD
Ron DeSantisARB
4% Avg
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket4¢
PredictIt5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
5.0%5¢5¢95¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.5%3¢4¢97¢97¢
PredictItPredictIt
4.5%4¢5¢95¢96¢

Candidate Spotlight

About J.D. Vance

J.D. Vance is the 50th Vice President of the United States, serving since January 20, 2025. He previously represented Ohio in the U.S. Senate from 2023 to 2025. His current role as Vice President makes him a prominent figure in the Republican Party, positioning him as a potential candidate for the 2028 presidential nomination.

About Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio is the current U.S. Secretary of State under President Donald Trump. He previously served as a U.S. Senator from Florida for three terms. His extensive experience in foreign policy and current diplomatic role make him a significant contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will Trump name during the State of the Union address?WONPre-event: 74%

About Tucker Carlson

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Republican nominee?

Key factors include polling data, candidate performances in debates, and endorsements from influential party members. Changes in public opinion can also significantly impact market odds.

How do prediction markets work for political events?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of various outcomes.

When will the Republican nominee be determined?

The Republican nominee will be determined during the party's primary elections, culminating in the national convention in mid-2028. This timeline is critical for shaping the political landscape leading up to the general election.

What is "2028 US Presidential Republican Nominee" and why does it matter?

2028 US Presidential Republican Nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Elise Stefanik leads at 50% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include J.D. Vance at 34%, Marco Rubio at 27%, Tucker Carlson at 6%.

What is moving the odds on "2028 US Presidential Republican Nominee"?

Elise Stefanik currently leads at 50% implied probability. Behind Elise Stefanik, J.D. Vance at 34% and Marco Rubio at 27% and Tucker Carlson at 6% are the next closest contenders. The 99.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread99.0%
Platforms

Market Rulebook: 2028 US Presidential Republican Nominee

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Donald J. Trump wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Who will Trump name during the State of the Union address?

Resolved

2026-03-02

WONMarco Rubio
Pre-event: 74%

Who will attend the State of the Union?

Resolved

2026-02-24

LOSTTucker Carlson
Pre-event: 0%

Republican nominee for Senate in Florida in 2026?

Resolved

2026-05-01

LOSTRon DeSantis
Pre-event: 1%

Who will Trump talk to in January

Resolved

2026-01-31

WONRon DeSantis
Pre-event: 95%

Who will Donald Trump talk to in Apr 2026?

Resolved

2026-04-30

LOSTRon DeSantis
Pre-event: 87%
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
Tucker Carlson is a conservative media personality and host of 'The Tucker Carlson Show' on X. He previously hosted 'Tucker Carlson Tonight' on Fox News from 2016 to 2023. His influential commentary and large following make him a notable figure in Republican politics.

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will attend the State of the Union?LOSTPre-event: 0%

About Ron DeSantis

Ron DeSantis is the current Governor of Florida, serving his second term after re-election in 2022. He previously served as a U.S. Representative for Florida's 6th congressional district from 2013 to 2018. His current role as governor and his previous congressional experience make him a significant figure in Florida politics.

Prediction Market Track Record

Republican nominee for Senate in Florida in 2026?LOSTPre-event: 1%Who will Trump talk to in JanuaryWONPre-event: 95%Who will Donald Trump talk to in Apr 2026?LOSTPre-event: 87%

About Donald Trump

Donald J. Trump is the 47th President of the United States, inaugurated on January 20, 2025. He previously served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021. His current role as president makes him the incumbent Republican nominee for the 2028 presidential election.
3
Candidates24
Leader

Elise Stefanik

49.7% avg

Smart Money Feed
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Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

PolymarketWill Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
BUYNo@ 91¢$157K PnL
Payout$650
Stake$591.50
1h ago
PolymarketWill Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
BUYNo@ 94¢$378K PnL
Payout$570
Stake$535.37
2d ago