Live prediction market odds for 2028 US Presidential Republican Nominee. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and PredictIt and Predict.fun.
Traders give J.D. Vance about a 34.4% chance. Marco Rubio follows at 18.7%, Ron DeSantis follows at 16.0%, and John McEntee follows at 4.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 77.9 percentage points.
J.D. Vance is the 50th Vice President of the United States, serving since January 20, 2025. He previously represented Ohio in the U.S. Senate from 2023 to 2025. His current role as Vice President makes him a prominent figure in the Republican Party, positioning him as a potential candidate for the 2028 presidential nomination.
About Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio is the current U.S. Secretary of State under President Donald Trump. He previously served as a U.S. Senator from Florida for three terms. His extensive experience in foreign policy and current diplomatic role make him a significant contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
About Ron DeSantis
Ron DeSantis is the current Governor of Florida, serving his second term after re-election in 2022. He previously served as a U.S. Representative for Florida's 6th congressional district from 2013 to 2018. His current role as governor and his previous congressional experience make him a significant figure in Florida politics.
About Tucker Carlson
Tucker Carlson is a conservative media personality and host of 'The Tucker Carlson Show' on X. He previously hosted 'Tucker Carlson Tonight' on Fox News from 2016 to 2023. His influential commentary and large following make him a notable figure in Republican politics.
About Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz is the current U.S. Senator from Texas, serving his third term in office. He previously served as the Solicitor General of Texas from 2003 to 2008. Cruz is recognized for his strong conservative stance and active participation in legislative affairs.
About Glenn Youngkin
Glenn Youngkin is the former Governor of Virginia, having served from January 15, 2022, to January 17, 2026. Prior to his gubernatorial tenure, he was co-CEO of The Carlyle Group, a leading global investment firm. His extensive experience in both business and public service underscores his qualifications for national leadership roles.
About Thomas Massie
Thomas Massie is the U.S. Representative for Kentucky's 4th congressional district, serving since 2012. He previously served as Judge-Executive of Lewis County from 2011 to 2012. Massie is known for his libertarian-leaning Republican views and his engineering background from MIT.
About Brian Kemp
Brian Kemp is the current Governor of Georgia, serving his second term since January 14, 2023. He previously served as Georgia's Secretary of State from 2010 to 2018 and as a member of the Georgia State Senate from 2003 to 2007. As governor, Kemp has focused on economic development, public safety, and education reform in Georgia.
About Donald Trump
Donald J. Trump is the 47th President of the United States, inaugurated on January 20, 2025. He previously served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021. His current role as president makes him the incumbent Republican nominee for the 2028 presidential election.
About Donald Trump Jr
Donald J. Trump Jr. is the Executive Vice President of The Trump Organization, overseeing its real estate, retail, commercial, hotel, and golf interests. He has been involved in the company's development projects since 2001, including the Trump Place redevelopment in New York City. His extensive experience in real estate development and leadership within the Trump Organization make him a significant figure in the business and political landscape.
About Josh Hawley
Josh Hawley is the senior United States senator from Missouri, serving since 2019. He previously served as Missouri's attorney general from 2017 to 2019. As a senator, he has been active on committees such as Judiciary, Homeland Security, Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, and Small Business and Entrepreneurship.
About Nikki Haley
Nikki Haley is the Walter P. Stern Chair at the Hudson Institute. She served as the 29th U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations from 2017 to 2018. Haley was the first woman to win a Republican presidential primary, securing victory in the 2024 District of Columbia Republican primary.
About Rand Paul
Rand Paul is the current U.S. Senator from Kentucky, serving since 2011. He chairs the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. As a constitutional conservative and libertarian, he advocates for limited government and individual liberties.
About Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Sarah Huckabee Sanders is the 47th Governor of Arkansas, inaugurated on January 10, 2023. She previously served as White House Press Secretary under President Donald Trump from 2017 to 2019. As governor, she has implemented significant conservative reforms, including the LEARNS Act, which overhauled the state's education system, and tax cuts aimed at reducing the state income tax rate.
About Robert F. Kennedy Jr
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the current Secretary of Health and Human Services in the United States. He previously co-founded the nonprofit Children's Health Defense, focusing on addressing childhood chronic conditions. His extensive background in public health and environmental law underscores his commitment to health policy reform.
About Tom Cotton
Tom Cotton is the junior U.S. Senator from Arkansas, serving since 2015. He previously represented Arkansas's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2013 to 2015. As Chair of the Senate Republican Conference and the Senate Intelligence Committee, Cotton holds significant leadership positions in the Senate.
About Joe Kent
Joe Kent is a former United States Army Special Forces officer and former director of the National Counterterrorism Center. He served as the director of the National Counterterrorism Center from July 2025 to March 2026. Kent's extensive military and intelligence experience, including multiple combat deployments and leadership roles, underscores his qualifications in national security and counterterrorism.
About John N. Kennedy
John Neely Kennedy is the Republican U.S. Senator from Louisiana, serving since 2017. Prior to his Senate tenure, he was the Louisiana State Treasurer from 2000 to 2017. As a senator, he focuses on budget issues, banking, and judiciary matters.
About Mike Pence
Mike Pence is a former U.S. Vice President and Governor of Indiana. He served as Vice President from 2017 to 2021 and as Governor from 2013 to 2017. He is relevant to this prediction market due to his extensive experience in national and state politics.
About Tim Scott
Tim Scott is the senior U.S. Senator from South Carolina, serving since 2013. He previously represented South Carolina's 1st congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2011 to 2013. As Chair of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs and Chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, he plays a pivotal role in shaping national policy and Republican electoral strategies.
About Tulsi Gabbard
Tulsi Gabbard is a former U.S. Representative for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district and served as the Director of National Intelligence from February 2025 to June 2026. She resigned from the DNI position in May 2026 to support her husband during his battle with cancer. Gabbard's extensive experience in national security and intelligence makes her a notable figure in discussions about U.S. presidential candidates.
About Elise Stefanik
Elise Stefanik is the Chairwoman of House Republican Leadership, representing New York's 21st Congressional District. She previously served as Chair of the House Republican Conference from 2021 to 2025. Stefanik is recognized for her leadership in the House Republican Caucus and her bipartisan approach to legislation.
About Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth is the current Secretary of Defense, serving since January 25, 2025. Prior to this, he was a television contributor and co-host for Fox News, including 'Fox & Friends Weekend' from 2017 to 2024. His extensive military background and leadership roles in defense policy make him a significant figure in national security discussions.
About Rick Scott
Rick Scott is the senior U.S. Senator from Florida, serving since 2019. He was the 45th Governor of Florida from 2011 to 2019. As a former governor and current senator, Scott has extensive experience in state and federal government.
About Candace Owens
Candace Owens is an American political commentator, author, and podcaster. She served as communications director for Turning Point USA from 2017 to 2019 and hosted 'Candace' on The Daily Wire until March 2024. Owens has been a prominent conservative voice, known for her outspoken views on various political issues.
About Elon Musk
Elon Musk is the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX. He co-founded PayPal and served as Senior Advisor to the President in 2025. Musk's leadership in technology and business makes him a significant figure in political discussions.
About Greg Abbott
Greg Abbott is the current Governor of Texas, serving since 2015. Before his gubernatorial tenure, he was the state's Attorney General from 2002 to 2015 and a Justice on the Texas Supreme Court from 1996 to 2001. Abbott's extensive legal and executive experience positions him as a significant figure in Texas politics.
About Steve Bannon
Steve Bannon is a conservative podcaster and media and political strategist. He served as chief strategist for Donald Trump's presidential administration in 2017. Bannon co-founded Breitbart News and hosts the 'War Room' podcast, influencing conservative discourse.
About Vivek Ramaswamy
Vivek Ramaswamy is the Republican nominee for Governor of Ohio in the 2026 election. He founded Roivant Sciences in 2014 and was its CEO until 2021. Ramaswamy has a history of political involvement, including a 2024 presidential campaign and a role in the Department of Government Efficiency in 2024.
About Doug Burgum
Doug Burgum is the 55th Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior, confirmed on January 30, 2025. He served as the 33rd Governor of North Dakota from 2016 to 2024. As Secretary, Burgum leads the National Energy Dominance Council, overseeing U.S. energy policy and production.
About Eric Trump
Eric Trump is the Executive Vice President of The Trump Organization, overseeing global real estate and strategic growth. He co-founded American Bitcoin, a Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency mining company. His leadership in business and digital finance underscores his qualifications for political endeavors.
About Kim Kardashian
Kim Kardashian is a media personality, businesswoman, and co-founder of SKIMS, a shapewear and apparel company valued at $5 billion as of November 2025. She gained prominence through the reality television series 'Keeping Up with the Kardashians' and has expanded her business ventures to include SKKY Partners, a private equity firm. Kardashian's extensive experience in media and business positions her as a notable figure in discussions about potential political candidacies.
About John Thune
John Thune is the Senate Majority Leader and a Republican U.S. senator from South Dakota. He served three terms in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1997 to 2003. As Senate Majority Leader, he plays a pivotal role in shaping legislative priorities and advancing the Republican agenda in the Senate.
About Kristi Noem
Kristi Noem is currently serving as a senior adviser to Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau. She previously held the position of Secretary of Homeland Security from January 2025 to March 2026. Noem's extensive experience in federal and state government roles underscores her qualifications for national leadership positions.
About Erika Kirk
Erika Kirk is the CEO and chairwoman of Turning Point USA, a conservative organization. She succeeded her late husband, Charlie Kirk, in this role after his assassination in September 2025. Her leadership continues to influence conservative youth activism and policy discussions.
About Matt Gaetz
Matt Gaetz is a former U.S. Representative for Florida's 1st congressional district, serving from 2017 to 2024. He resigned from Congress in January 2025 after withdrawing his nomination for U.S. Attorney General. Gaetz has since hosted a political talk show on One America News Network and launched a podcast discussing culture, entertainment, and politics.
About Mike Johnson
Mike Johnson is the 56th Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, elected on October 25, 2023. He previously served as Vice Chair of the House Republican Conference and chaired the Republican Study Committee. His leadership roles and conservative policy positions make him a significant figure in the Republican Party.
About Tom Brady
Tom Brady is a strategic adviser for Delta Air Lines. He retired from the NFL in February 2023 after 23 seasons, holding seven Super Bowl titles. Brady's leadership and experience in high-performance environments make him a valuable asset in strategic advisory roles.
Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases
Market Rulebook: 2028 US Presidential Republican Nominee
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and Predict.fun.
Kalshi
Primary Rule
If Donald J. Trump wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Polymarket US
Primary Rule
This market will settle to Yes if JD Vance wins and accepts the Republican Party nomination to contest the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Outcome sourced from the Republican Party.
Any replacement of the Republican Party nominee before election day will not affect the settlement of this market.
Predict.fun
Primary Rule
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors influence the odds for the Republican nominee?
Key factors include polling data, candidate performances in debates, and endorsements from influential party members. Changes in public opinion can also significantly impact market odds.
How do prediction markets work for political events?
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of various outcomes.
When will the Republican nominee be determined?
The Republican nominee will be determined during the party's primary elections, culminating in the national convention in mid-2028. This timeline is critical for shaping the political landscape leading up to the general election.
What does the 2028 US Presidential Republican Nominee prediction market track?
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
What are the latest 2028 US Presidential Republican Nominee odds?
The latest available prices are J.D. Vance: 35.5¢ on Kalshi, 33.3¢ on Polymarket, 31.5¢ on PredictIt, 34.5¢ on Polymarket US, 34.7¢ on Predict.fun; Marco Rubio: 17.5¢ on Kalshi, 17.9¢ on Polymarket, 18.5¢ on PredictIt, 20.5¢ on Polymarket US, 22.6¢ on Predict.fun; Ron DeSantis: 15.5¢ on Kalshi, 14.9¢ on Polymarket, 16.5¢ on PredictIt, 17.5¢ on Polymarket US, 14.7¢ on Predict.fun; John McEntee: 5.3¢ on Kalshi, 3.7¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
