Prediction Hunt logoPrediction Hunt
MarketsArbitrageSmart MoneyTrendingToolsAPI
Live
Prediction Hunt

Compare prediction market odds across every platform. Find the best prices and track smart money.

Markets

  • Elections
  • Sports
  • Crypto
  • Entertainment
  • US Presidential Election Hub
  • Archive

Tools

  • Trending
  • Arbitrage Scanner
  • Smart Money Feed
  • Calculators
  • News
  • Blog

Community

  • Discord
  • Twitter / X
  • Tools
  • About
  • API Terms of Service

This information is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always verify resolution criteria and platform rules before trading.

MarketsArbWhalesTrending

Live prediction market odds for Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi / Polymarket

Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winner

2026-05-19

About This Market

Share

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winner for the upcoming election on May 19, 2026. This primary is crucial as it will determine the Democratic candidate who will compete in a pivotal Senate race, influencing party dynamics and legislative agendas.

Kyle Sweetser leads the “Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winner” event at 57.8% implied probability. Other contenders include Dakarai Larriett (25.3%), and Mark Wheeler (7.2%). A 4.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
No price history available

Live Markets

2 platforms
KS
Kyle Sweetser
57% Avg
Kalshi61¢
Polymarket61¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
58.0%55¢61¢39¢45¢
PolymarketPolymarket
55.5%50¢61¢39¢50¢
DL
Dakarai Larriett
26% Avg
Kalshi28¢
Polymarket25¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
26.5%25¢28¢72¢75¢
PolymarketPolymarket
24.5%24¢25¢75¢76¢
MW
Mark Wheeler
8% Avg
Kalshi9¢
Polymarket13¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
7.5%6¢9¢91¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
8.5%4¢13¢87¢96¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Kyle Sweetser

Kyle Sweetser is a construction company owner and Democratic candidate for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alabama. In 2024, he spoke at the Democratic National Convention, criticizing former President Trump. His campaign focuses on economic issues affecting Alabama families.

About Dakarai Larriett

Dakarai Larriett is a petcare business owner and Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in Alabama. He previously ran for the same seat in 2026, focusing on economic justice and civil rights. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he is a contender in the upcoming Democratic primary.

About Mark Wheeler

Mark Wheeler II is a chemist from Heflin, Alabama, running for the U.S. Senate in the 2026 Democratic primary. He previously qualified for the 2026 U.S. Senate race, joining a growing Democratic field. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he is one of the contenders in the upcoming primary.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Alabama Democratic Senate Primary?

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and campaign funding are key factors that shape the odds. Additionally, voter sentiment and turnout predictions play a significant role in determining market movements.

When is the Alabama Democratic Senate Primary scheduled?

The primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026. This date is critical as it sets the stage for the general election and the candidates' strategies leading up to it.

How do prediction markets reflect candidate viability in the primary?

Prediction markets aggregate the collective insights of participants, reflecting perceived candidate viability based on various indicators. Changes in odds can indicate shifts in public opinion or campaign effectiveness as the primary date approaches.

What is "Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winner" and why does it matter?

Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Kyle Sweetser leads at 58% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Dakarai Larriett at 25%, Mark Wheeler at 7%.

What is moving the odds on "Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winner"?

Kyle Sweetser currently leads at 58% implied probability. Behind Kyle Sweetser, Dakarai Larriett at 25% and Mark Wheeler at 7% are the next closest contenders. The 4.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Automate This Market

Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winner” event. All for free.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread4.5%
Platforms2
Candidates3
Leader

Kyle Sweetser

57.8% avg

Market Rulebook: Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Mark Wheeler wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Alabama Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Alabama. If no 2026 Alabama Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Alabama Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?