Live prediction market odds for Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Mar 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-31
This market resolved on 2026-03-31. Bruno Mars was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking which artist will have the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of March 2026. This event reflects trends in music popularity, streaming habits, and the impact of new releases and collaborations on listener engagement.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Bruno MarsWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Bad Bunny | 1% | 50% |
Billie Eilish | 1% | 50% |
Coldplay | 1% | 50% |
Drake | 1% | 50% |
Ed Sheeran | 1% | 50% |
Kendrick Lamar | 1% | 50% |
Lady Gaga | 1% | 50% |
Rihanna | 1% | 50% |
Taylor Swift | 1% | 50% |
The Weeknd | 1% | 50% |
Factors include new music releases, promotional activities, social media presence, and collaborations with other artists. Seasonal trends and viral moments can also significantly impact listener counts.
Odds are based on market participants' assessments of each artist's potential popularity and streaming performance. These assessments are influenced by current listener trends, historical data, and industry developments.
March 2026 marks the end of a quarter, a time when streaming platforms often report listener statistics. This timing allows for a clearer assessment of an artist's standing in the competitive music landscape.
Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Mar 2026 was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Bruno Mars led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Bad Bunny at 26%, Billie Eilish at 26%, Coldplay at 26%.
Bruno Mars held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Bruno Mars, Bad Bunny at 26% and Billie Eilish at 26% and Coldplay at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the artist with the most monthly listeners on Spotify on Mar 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET is Bruno Mars, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the listed artist with the greatest number of monthly listeners according to Spotify on March 31, 2026, 12PM ET. The monthly listener count is listed on each artist's public Spotify profile. Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not count towards the featured artist's total. In the event of an exact tie for the number of monthly listeners, this market will resolve in favor of the listed artist whose name comes first in alphabetical order. If Spotify is down at the listed time on the listed date, this market will resolve based on the most recent available data. The resolution source for this market will be Spotify.
Bruno Mars
99.5% avg
