Live prediction market odds for CA-11 primary: first place. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
Resolved 2026-06-02
This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Scott Wiener was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the CA-11 primary for the 2026 elections. This primary will determine key candidates for the general election, influencing party dynamics and voter engagement in the region.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
Scott WienerWINNER | 100% | 99% | 99% |
David Ganezer | 1% | 50% | — |
Jingchao Xiong | 1% |
The CA-11 primary plays a crucial role in determining which candidates will represent their parties in the general election. Outcomes can influence party strategies and voter turnout.
Prediction markets provide real-time insights into the likelihood of candidates winning the primary based on various factors. These factors include polling data, campaign activities, and public sentiment.
The CA-11 primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. This date is significant as it marks a key point in the election cycle leading up to the general election.
CA-11 primary: first place was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Scott Wiener led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include David Ganezer at 25%, Jingchao Xiong at 25%, Saikat Chakrabarti at 17%.
Scott Wiener held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Scott Wiener, David Ganezer at 25% and Jingchao Xiong at 25% and Saikat Chakrabarti at 17% were the next closest contenders. The 49.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “CA-11 primary: first place” event. All for free.
As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
Used by builders and traders in our 3K+ Discord community
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Saikat Chakrabarti wins the the 2026 CA-11 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market resolves to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
| 50% |
| — |
Saikat Chakrabarti | 1% | 50% | 1% |
Connie Chan | 1% | 0% | — |
Scott Wiener
99.2% avg
