Live prediction market odds for CA-11 primary: first place. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
Resolved 2026-06-02
This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Scott Wiener was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the CA-11 primary for the 2026 elections.
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the CA-11 primary for the 2026 elections. This primary will determine key candidates for the general election, influencing party dynamics and voter engagement in the region.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
Scott WienerWINNER | 99% | 96% | 99% |
David Ganezer | 1% | 50% | — |
Jingchao Xiong | 1% | 50% | — |
Saikat Chakrabarti | 6% | 3% | 7% |
Connie Chan | 2% | 2% | — |
Gregory Haynes | 1% | — | — |
John Buffler | 1% | — | — |
Keith Freedman | 1% | — | — |
Marie Hurabiell | 1% | — | — |
Nathan Deer | 1% | — | — |
Omed Hamid | 1% | — | — |
Scott Wiener
97.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf John Buffler wins the the 2026 CA-11 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market resolves to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The CA-11 primary plays a crucial role in determining which candidates will represent their parties in the general election. Outcomes can influence party strategies and voter turnout.
Prediction markets provide real-time insights into the likelihood of candidates winning the primary based on various factors. These factors include polling data, campaign activities, and public sentiment.
The CA-11 primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. This date is significant as it marks a key point in the election cycle leading up to the general election.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Scott Wiener: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 96.0¢ on Polymarket, 99.0¢ on PredictIt; David Ganezer: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 50.0¢ on Polymarket; Jingchao Xiong: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 50.0¢ on Polymarket; Saikat Chakrabarti: 6.0¢ on Kalshi, 2.5¢ on Polymarket, 7.0¢ on PredictIt. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
