Live prediction market odds for CA-16 primary: Who will advance?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-06-02
This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Sam Liccardo was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the CA-16 primary to determine which candidates will advance. This primary is crucial as it shapes the Democratic representation in a key California district ahead of the general election.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Sam LiccardoWINNER | 100% | 99% |
Peter Sundin Soulé | 97% | 50% |
Jotham Stein | 0% | 38% |
Kevin Johnson |
The CA-16 primary plays a pivotal role in determining the Democratic nominee for a competitive congressional seat. The outcome can influence party dynamics and strategies leading into the general election.
Prediction markets aggregate the collective insights and expectations of participants regarding candidate performance. As new information emerges, such as polling data or endorsements, market odds can fluctuate accordingly.
The CA-16 primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. This timing is critical as it aligns with the broader election cycle, impacting voter turnout and candidate strategies.
CA-16 primary: Who will advance was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Sam Liccardo led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Peter Sundin Soulé at 73%, Jotham Stein at 19%, Kevin Johnson at 24%.
Sam Liccardo held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Sam Liccardo, Peter Sundin Soulé at 73% and Jotham Stein at 19% and Kevin Johnson at 24% were the next closest contenders. The 48.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Sam Liccardo
99.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Kevin Johnson advances in the 2026 CA-16 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
| 45% |
