Live prediction market odds for CA-32 primary: Who will advance?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
Resolved 2026-06-02
This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Brad Sherman was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 98%.
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the CA-32 primary to determine which candidates will advance. As the election date approaches, shifts in voter sentiment and campaign dynamics are crucial factors influencing the odds in this competitive race.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
Brad ShermanWINNER | 98% | 98% | 50% |
Larry Thompson | 97% | 91% | — |
Anna Wilding | 0% |
The CA-32 primary is a critical step in the electoral process, determining which candidates will compete in the general election. It can influence party dynamics and voter engagement leading up to the election.
Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants to forecast outcomes based on real-time data and sentiment. As events unfold, such as debates and endorsements, the odds reflect changing perceptions of candidates' chances.
Factors such as polling results, campaign strategies, and public debates can significantly impact candidate odds. Additionally, external events like economic conditions or national issues may also play a role in shaping voter preferences.
CA-32 primary: Who will advance was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Brad Sherman led the market at 82% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Larry Thompson at 94%, Anna Wilding at 24%, Jake Levine at 39%.
Brad Sherman held the lead at 82% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Brad Sherman, Larry Thompson at 94% and Anna Wilding at 24% and Jake Levine at 39% were the next closest contenders. The 48.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Brad Sherman
82.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Chris Ahuja advances in the 2026 CA-32 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
| 48% |
| — |
Jake Levine | 29% | 48% | — |
Jake Levine | 29% | 48% | 1% |
Doug Smith | 0% | 7% | — |
Josh Sautter | 5% | 1% | — |
Chris Ahuja | 1% | 4% | — |
Dory Benami | 5% | 2% | — |
Marena Lin | 0% | 1% | — |
