Live prediction market odds for Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-01-31
This market resolved on 2026-01-31. Yes was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
YesWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026 was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Yes led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution.
Yes held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Yes: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Yes would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Yes
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management contains a notice that the government at least partially shut down on January 31, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET due to a lapse in appropriations, then the market resolves to Yes.
