Live prediction market odds for How many launches will SpaceX have in March?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-31
This market resolved on 2026-03-31. 12 or more was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the number of SpaceX launches held on March 2026. This event is crucial as it reflects SpaceX's operational capacity and impacts the broader aerospace industry and satellite deployment timelines.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
12 or moreWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Above 12 | 99% | 100% |
Launch schedules are affected by technical readiness, regulatory approvals, and payload availability. Weather conditions can also lead to delays or rescheduling.
SpaceX has been increasing its launch frequency over the years, aiming for more regular missions. Historical data shows a trend towards more launches as the company scales operations.
SpaceX's launches play a pivotal role in satellite deployment and space exploration initiatives. Their success can influence market confidence and investment in the aerospace sector.
How many launches will SpaceX have in March was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). 12 or more led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Above 12 at 100%.
12 or more held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind 12 or more, Above 12 at 100% were the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
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12 or more
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf SpaceX has more than 12 launches in Mar 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.
