Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the IA-02 Republican nominee?

Accepted Answer

Odds are influenced by candidate polling, fundraising efforts, and endorsements. Additionally, shifts in voter sentiment and national political trends can impact predictions.

Question 2

How does the IA-02 district affect the Republican primary?

Accepted Answer

IA-02 is considered a competitive district that can sway election outcomes. Winning the nomination here can provide momentum for candidates in the broader electoral landscape.

Question 3

What is the timeline for the IA-02 Republican nomination process?

Accepted Answer

The nomination process will culminate in the primary election scheduled for June 2, 2026. Candidates will ramp up their campaigns leading to this date, making early predictions crucial.

Question 4

What is "IA-02 Republican nominee?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

IA-02 Republican nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Shannon Lundgren leads at 25% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Charlie McClintock at 51%, Joe Mitchell at 50%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "IA-02 Republican nominee?"?

Accepted Answer

Shannon Lundgren currently leads at 25% implied probability. Behind Shannon Lundgren, Charlie McClintock at 51% and Joe Mitchell at 50% are the next closest contenders. The 98.2% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "IA-02 Republican nominee?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Shannon Lundgren: 0¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Charlie McClintock: 3¢ on Kalshi, 99¢ on Polymarket. Joe Mitchell: 99¢ on Kalshi, 1¢ on Polymarket. The 98.2% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Shannon Lundgren is at 25%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 25¢ means the market estimates a 25% probability that Shannon Lundgren will be the outcome. Buying one share at 25¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 300% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	50.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢
Polymarket	50.0%	100¢	0¢	100¢	0¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	50.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢
Polymarket	99.5%	99¢	100¢	0¢	1¢

IA-02 Republican nominee?

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Market Rulebook: IA-02 Republican nominee?