Live prediction market odds for Japan General Election Winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-08
This market resolved on 2026-02-08. Liberal Democratic Party was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Liberal Democratic PartyWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Japan General Election Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Liberal Democratic Party led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution.
Liberal Democratic Party held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Liberal Democratic Party: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Liberal Democratic Party would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
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Liberal Democratic Party
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the winner of the next Japanese general election is the LDP, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a parliamentary election, the winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats in the specified chamber, even if they do not form the government. If there is a tie for the most seats, the winner is the party that enters government; if that doesn't resolve the tie, the winner is the party with the higher share of the vote. If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.
