Live prediction market odds for Lowest temperature in Miami on May 7, 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-05-07
This market resolved on 2026-05-07. 74° to 75° was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 84%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the lowest temperature in Miami on May 7, 2026. This event is significant as it can impact local climate discussions and tourism, reflecting broader trends in weather patterns and climate change effects in the region.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
74° to 75°WINNER | 99% | 68% |
76° to 77° | 1% | 50% |
72° to 73° | 1% | 49% |
Predictions are influenced by historical weather data, seasonal climate patterns, and current atmospheric conditions. Additionally, climate change trends may alter typical weather expectations.
Tracking specific weather events like this helps in understanding local climate variations and trends. It also contributes to discussions on climate resilience and adaptation strategies.
Temperature predictions can affect tourism, agriculture, and energy consumption in Miami. Accurate forecasts help businesses and residents prepare for potential weather impacts.
Lowest temperature in Miami on May 7, 2026 was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). 74° to 75° led the market at 84% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include 76° to 77° at 26%, 72° to 73° at 25%.
74° to 75° held the lead at 84% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind 74° to 75°, 76° to 77° at 26% and 72° to 73° at 25% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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74° to 75°
83.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the minimum temperature recorded at Miami for May 7, 2026, is between 72-73° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Data for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Miami, FL" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies. Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
Polymarket