Live prediction market odds for March 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-18
This market resolved on 2026-03-18. Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0 was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 51%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the March 2026 Fed Combo event, focusing on potential changes to the federal funds rate and dissenting opinions. Market reactions will be influenced by economic indicators, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions leading up to the meeting.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0WINNER | 1% | 100% |
Economic indicators such as inflation, unemployment rates, and GDP growth play crucial roles in shaping the Fed's decisions. Additionally, global economic conditions and financial market stability are considered.
Dissent within the Federal Reserve indicates differing opinions among members regarding monetary policy decisions. Such disagreements can reflect varying economic outlooks and influence market perceptions of future policy directions.
Prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions and data, providing insights into market expectations for Federal Reserve actions. Shifts in odds can signal changing sentiments based on new economic data or statements from Fed officials.
March 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0 led the market at 51% implied probability before resolution.
Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0 held the lead at 51% implied probability heading into resolution. The 99.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf ALL of the following occur for Mar 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Federal Funds Rate Decision uses FEDDECISION, Dissents uses FOMCDISSENTCOUNT. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
PolymarketThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17 - 18, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0
50.5% avg
