Live prediction market odds for ME-02 Democratic nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-06-09
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Democratic nominee in Maine's 2nd Congressional District for the 2026 elections. This event is crucial as it could influence party dynamics and strategies leading up to the general election, impacting voter turnout and candidate viability.
Paige Loud is priced at 25.0% implied probability for the “ME-02 Democratic nominee” event. A 50.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising success, and endorsements. Polling data and voter sentiment also play critical roles in shaping market expectations.
Winning the ME-02 seat can bolster the Democratic majority in Congress. It also serves as a litmus test for the party's appeal in rural areas.
The nominee will be decided during the primary elections scheduled for June 2026. This timeline allows candidates to campaign and engage with voters leading up to the vote.
ME-02 Democratic nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Paige Loud leads at 25% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Paige Loud currently leads at 25% implied probability. The 50.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Paige Loud wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 ME-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Paige Loud
25.0% avg
