Live prediction market odds for Megaquake by March 31st, 2026?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Opinion.
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Polymarket / Opinion
2026-03-31
Polymarket and Opinion are tracking the likelihood of a megaquake occurring by March 31st, 2026. This event is crucial as it impacts disaster preparedness, insurance markets, and public safety measures in earthquake-prone regions.
Megaquake by March 31 is priced at 25.5% implied probability for the “Megaquake by March 31st, 2026” event. A 49.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
A megaquake typically refers to an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher. Such quakes can cause widespread destruction and have significant economic impacts.
Odds are influenced by geological studies, historical earthquake data, and expert analyses. Market participants assess the likelihood based on these factors and current seismic activity.
Consequences can include loss of life, infrastructure damage, and long-term economic disruption. Communities may face challenges in recovery and rebuilding efforts.
Megaquake by March 31st, 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Opinion). Megaquake by March 31 leads at 26% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Megaquake by March 31 currently leads at 26% implied probability. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Megaquake by March 31
25.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Opinion.
OpinionA "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET and March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
