Live prediction market odds for Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies (4:05 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / ProphetX
Resolved 2026-05-23
This market resolved on 2026-05-23. Over 1.5 runs scored was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies (4:05 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-05-23. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
Over 1.5 runs scoredWINNER | 99% | — | — |
Over 2.5 runs scored | 99% | — | — |
Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 1.5 | — | 97% |
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies (4:05 PM ET) was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX). Over 1.5 runs scored led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Over 2.5 runs scored at 99%, Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 1.5 at 97%, Philadelphia Phillies at 97%.
Over 1.5 runs scored held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Over 1.5 runs scored, Over 2.5 runs scored at 99% and Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 1.5 at 97% and Philadelphia Phillies at 97% were the next closest contenders. The 44.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX: Over 1.5 runs scored: 99¢ on Kalshi. Over 2.5 runs scored: 99¢ on Kalshi. Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 1.5: 97¢ on Polymarket. Philadelphia Phillies: 99¢ on Kalshi, 94¢ on Polymarket, 98¢ on ProphetX. The 44.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Over 1.5 runs scored would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
KalshiIf Philadelphia wins the Cleveland vs Philadelphia professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 23, 2026 at 4:05 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Cleveland vs Philadelphia professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 23, 2026 at 4:05 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for May 23 at 4:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
ProphetXSports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
Philadelphia Phillies | 99% | 94% | 98% |
Total under 9.5 | — | 96% | — |
Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 2.5 | — | 96% | — |
Total under 8.5 | — | 94% | — |
Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 3.5 | — | 89% | — |
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 1.5 | 99% | 88% | — |
Total under 6.5 | — | 80% | — |
Total under 7.5 | — | 78% | — |
Total under 5.5 | — | 72% | — |
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 2.5 | 99% | 72% | — |
Cleveland Guardians spread plus 3.5 | — | 58% | — |
Total under 4.5 | — | 55% | — |
Total over 4.5 | 1% | 45% | — |
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 3.5 | 1% | 42% | — |
Cleveland Guardians spread plus 2.5 | — | 29% | — |
Total over 5.5 | 1% | 28% | — |
Total over 7.5 | 1% | 22% | — |
Total over 6.5 | 1% | 20% | — |
Cleveland Guardians spread plus 1.5 | — | 13% | — |
Cleveland Guardians spread minus 3.5 | 1% | 11% | — |
Cleveland Guardians | 1% | — | 7% |
Total over 8.5 | 1% | 7% | — |
Cleveland Guardians spread minus 2.5 | 1% | 4% | — |
Total over 9.5 | 1% | 4% | — |
Cleveland Guardians spread minus 1.5 | 4% | 3% | — |
Over 11.5 runs scored | 2% | — | — |
Over 3.5 runs scored | 1% | — | — |
Total over 10.5 | 1% | — | — |
Cleveland Guardians spread plus 4.5 | — | — | — |
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 4.5 | — | — | — |
Total under 10.5 | — | — | — |
Philadelphia Phillies
97.0% avg
