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Live prediction market odds for Next Prime Minister of Slovenia. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Next Prime Minister of Slovenia

2026-03-22

About This Market

Share

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the next Prime Minister of Slovenia, with the election scheduled for March 2026. Political dynamics, party strategies, and public sentiment will influence the odds as candidates vie for leadership in a pivotal moment for the country's governance.

Janez Janša leads the “Next Prime Minister of Slovenia” event at 55.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Robert Golob (20.5%), Anže Logar (8.2%), and Matjaž Han (26.3%). A 47.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
No price history available

Live Markets

2 platforms
JJ
Janez Janša
56% Avg
Kalshi58¢
Polymarket56¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
56.0%54¢58¢42¢46¢
PolymarketPolymarket
55.0%54¢56¢44¢46¢
RG
Robert Golob
20% Avg
Kalshi21¢
Polymarket21¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
20.0%19¢21¢79¢81¢
PolymarketPolymarket
20.0%19¢21¢79¢81¢
AL
Anže Logar
8% Avg
Kalshi9¢
Polymarket11¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
5.5%2¢9¢91¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
9.5%8¢11¢89¢92¢
MH
Matjaž Han
26% Avg
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
2.5%0¢5¢95¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Robert Golob

Robert Golob is the current Prime Minister of Slovenia and leader of the Freedom Movement party. He previously served as State Secretary at the Ministry of Economic Affairs from 1999 to 2002 and was President of the Management Board of GEN-I d.o.o. until 2021. His leadership in the Freedom Movement and subsequent election as Prime Minister make him a central figure in Slovenia's political landscape.

About Anže Logar

Anže Logar is the president of the political party Demokrati. He served as Slovenia's Minister of Foreign Affairs from March 2020 to June 2022. He is relevant to this prediction market as a potential candidate for the next Prime Minister of Slovenia.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?

Odds are influenced by polling data, party endorsements, and public opinion. Additionally, economic conditions and international relations may play a role in shaping voter preferences.

When is the election for the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?

The election is scheduled for March 22, 2026. This date is critical as it marks a significant political transition for Slovenia.

How do prediction markets work for political events like this?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of various outcomes, providing insights into political trends.

What is "Next Prime Minister of Slovenia" and why does it matter?

Next Prime Minister of Slovenia is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Janez Janša leads at 56% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Robert Golob at 21%, Anže Logar at 8%, Matjaž Han at 26%.

What is moving the odds on "Next Prime Minister of Slovenia"?

Janez Janša currently leads at 56% implied probability. Behind Janez Janša, Robert Golob at 21% and Anže Logar at 8% and Matjaž Han at 26% are the next closest contenders. The 47.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
BBCBloomberg NewsFinancial Timesparliament or legislature of <country>Reutersthe Associated PressThe GuardianThe New York TimesThe Washington Post
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle

Market Rulebook: Next Prime Minister of Slovenia

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Robert Golob becomes Prime Minister of Slovenia as a result of government formation following the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The person must be formally appointed, sworn in, or invested according to the country's constitutional procedures and command the confidence of the parliament/legislature through an investiture vote, formal approval, or constitutional convention. They must exercise the full powers of the office, not serve in a caretaker or acting capacity from the previous government. The appointment must stem from the government formation process following the specified election. Serving as caretaker pending government formation, being designated to form a government but not yet invested, leading the party with most seats without forming government, being named as designate without completing constitutional requirements, or holding the position temporarily during coalition negotiations do not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If no government forms by the deadline, all markets resolve to No except "No one" if that option exists. If new elections are called before government formation, markets resolve immediately. For rotating arrangements, the first person to meet all criteria resolves to Yes. If the person leading a party dies before taking office, their market resolves to last fair price and their successor may resolve to Yes. Markets for persons not explicitly listed resolve to "Other" if that option exists.

Resolution Oracles
BBCBloomberg NewsFinancial Timesparliament or legislature of <country>Reutersthe Associated PressThe GuardianThe New York TimesThe Washington Post
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially elected by the National Assembly (Državni zbor) and sworn in as Prime Minister of Slovenia following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Slovenia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
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Consensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread47.5%
Platforms2
Candidates4
Leader

Janez Janša

55.5% avg