Live prediction market odds for Next Prime Minister of Slovenia. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-22
This market resolved on 2026-03-22. Janez Janša was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 95%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the next Prime Minister of Slovenia, with the election held on March 2026. Political dynamics, party strategies, and public sentiment will influence the odds as candidates vie for leadership in a pivotal moment for the country's governance.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Janez JanšaWINNER | 94% | 96% |
Robert Golob | 2% | 20% |
Matjaž Han | 2% | 10% |
Anže Logar |
Odds are influenced by polling data, party endorsements, and public opinion. Additionally, economic conditions and international relations may play a role in shaping voter preferences.
The election is scheduled for March 22, 2026. This date is critical as it marks a significant political transition for Slovenia.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of various outcomes, providing insights into political trends.
Next Prime Minister of Slovenia was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Janez Janša led the market at 95% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Robert Golob at 11%, Matjaž Han at 6%, Anže Logar at 6%.
Janez Janša held the lead at 95% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Janez Janša, Robert Golob at 11% and Matjaž Han at 6% and Anže Logar at 6% were the next closest contenders. The 17.6% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Robert Golob becomes Prime Minister of Slovenia as a result of government formation following the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The person must be formally appointed, sworn in, or invested according to the country's constitutional procedures and command the confidence of the parliament/legislature through an investiture vote, formal approval, or constitutional convention. They must exercise the full powers of the office, not serve in a caretaker or acting capacity from the previous government. The appointment must stem from the government formation process following the specified election. Serving as caretaker pending government formation, being designated to form a government but not yet invested, leading the party with most seats without forming government, being named as designate without completing constitutional requirements, or holding the position temporarily during coalition negotiations do not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If no government forms by the deadline, all markets resolve to No except "No one" if that option exists. If new elections are called before government formation, markets resolve immediately. For rotating arrangements, the first person to meet all criteria resolves to Yes. If the person leading a party dies before taking office, their market resolves to last fair price and their successor may resolve to Yes. Markets for persons not explicitly listed resolve to "Other" if that option exists.
PolymarketParliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially elected by the National Assembly (Državni zbor) and sworn in as Prime Minister of Slovenia following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Slovenia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| 10% |
Janez Janša
95.2% avg
