Live prediction market odds for Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-15
This market resolved on 2026-03-15. One Battle After Another was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay, set to take place on March 15, 2026. This award highlights the creative achievements in film adaptations, influencing industry recognition and future projects for writers and filmmakers alike.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
One Battle After AnotherWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Bugonia | 1% | 50% |
Frankenstein | 1% | 50% |
Hamnet | 1% | 50% |
Train Dreams | 1% | 50% |
Odds are influenced by critical acclaim, audience reception, and the success of the source material. Additionally, industry trends and prior award wins can sway perceptions.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. Prices reflect collective beliefs about which films are likely to win, providing insights into industry sentiment.
This category recognizes the skill of transforming existing works into screenplays, showcasing the importance of storytelling in cinema. Winning can elevate a writer's profile and lead to more opportunities in the film industry.
Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). One Battle After Another led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Bugonia at 26%, Frankenstein at 26%, Hamnet at 26%.
One Battle After Another held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind One Battle After Another, Bugonia at 26% and Frankenstein at 26% and Hamnet at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf One Battle After Another has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
**This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Any references to the Academy Awards, the Oscars®, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and Kalshi.** The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.
PolymarketThe Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
One Battle After Another
99.5% avg
