Live prediction market odds for Oscar for Best Original Screenplay?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-15
This market resolved on 2026-03-15. Sinners was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay, an event that showcases the year's most creative cinematic writing. This award influences industry recognition and can significantly impact the careers of the winning writers and their future projects.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
SinnersWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Blue Moon | 1% | 50% |
It Was Just an Accident | 1% | 50% |
Marty Supreme | 1% | 50% |
Sentimental Value | 1% | 50% |
Odds are influenced by critical acclaim, audience reception, and awards season momentum. Additionally, previous accolades and nominations can sway perceptions of potential winners.
The award ceremony is set for March 15, 2026. This date is part of the annual Oscars event, which celebrates achievements in film.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. Prices fluctuate based on public sentiment, expert opinions, and market activity leading up to the awards.
Oscar for Best Original Screenplay was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Sinners led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Blue Moon at 26%, It Was Just an Accident at 26%, Marty Supreme at 26%.
Sinners held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Sinners, Blue Moon at 26% and It Was Just an Accident at 26% and Marty Supreme at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Sentimental Value has won Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
**This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Any references to the Academy Awards, the Oscars®, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and Kalshi.** The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.
PolymarketThe Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sinners
99.5% avg
