Live prediction market odds for Oscar for Best Supporting Actress?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-15
This market resolved on 2026-03-15. Amy Madigan was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress for the 2026 Academy Awards. This award influences industry recognition and can significantly impact the careers of nominees, making it a focal point during awards season.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Amy MadiganWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Elle Fanning | 1% | 50% |
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas | 1% | 50% |
Teyana Taylor | 1% | 50% |
Wunmi Mosaku | 1% | 50% |
Odds are influenced by performances in films, critical acclaim, and industry buzz leading up to the awards. Additionally, previous awards and nominations can sway market perceptions.
The 2026 Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for March 15, 2026. This date is significant as it marks the culmination of the awards season.
Prediction markets adjust in real-time based on news, social media sentiment, and expert opinions. As discussions around nominees evolve, so do the odds, reflecting the collective sentiment of market participants.
Oscar for Best Supporting Actress was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Amy Madigan led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Elle Fanning at 26%, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas at 26%, Teyana Taylor at 26%.
Amy Madigan held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Amy Madigan, Elle Fanning at 26% and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas at 26% and Teyana Taylor at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Oscar for Best Supporting Actress?” event. All for free.
As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
Used by builders and traders in our 2K+ Discord community
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Teyana Taylor has won Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.
PolymarketThe Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Amy Madigan
99.5% avg
