Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the Republican nominee in Minnesota?

Accepted Answer

Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising success, and endorsements. Additionally, polling data and public sentiment towards key issues play a crucial role.

Question 2

When is the primary election for the Minnesota gubernatorial race?

Accepted Answer

The primary election is scheduled for May 1, 2026. This date is critical as it determines which candidates will advance to the general election.

Question 3

How do prediction markets work for political nominations?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of various outcomes, influenced by real-time information and events.

Question 4

What is "Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota in 2026?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Kendall Qualls leads at 66% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Lisa Demuth at 52%, Brad Kohler at 5%, Chris Madel at 5%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota in 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

Kendall Qualls currently leads at 66% implied probability. Behind Kendall Qualls, Lisa Demuth at 52% and Brad Kohler at 5% and Chris Madel at 5% are the next closest contenders. The 69.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota in 2026?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Kendall Qualls: 58¢ on Kalshi, 73¢ on Polymarket. Lisa Demuth: 17¢ on Kalshi, 87¢ on Polymarket. Brad Kohler: 0¢ on Kalshi, 10¢ on Polymarket. Chris Madel: 0¢ on Kalshi, 10¢ on Polymarket. The 69.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Kendall Qualls is at 66%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 66¢ means the market estimates a 66% probability that Kendall Qualls will be the outcome. Buying one share at 66¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 52% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	45.5%	20¢	71¢	29¢	80¢
Polymarket	73.5%	73¢	74¢	26¢	27¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	21.0%	16¢	26¢	74¢	84¢
Polymarket	86.5%	85¢	88¢	12¢	15¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	20.0%	10¢	30¢	70¢	90¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	15.0%	10¢	20¢	80¢	90¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	20.0%	10¢	30¢	70¢	90¢

Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota in 2026?

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Market Rulebook: Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota in 2026?