Live prediction market odds for Slovenian Parliamentary Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-31
This market resolved on 2026-03-31. Freedom Movement (GS) was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the Slovenian Parliamentary Election set for March 31, 2026. The outcome will influence Slovenia's political direction and governance, impacting both domestic policies and international relations within the EU.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Freedom Movement (GS)WINNER | 99% | 100% |
Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) | 3% | 50% |
The election will determine the composition of Slovenia's National Assembly, influencing legislative priorities and government stability. It can also affect Slovenia's role within the European Union.
Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants, providing insights into likely election outcomes based on current political dynamics. Odds can fluctuate based on polling data and campaign developments.
Key factors include party popularity, voter turnout, and major political events leading up to the election. Economic conditions and public sentiment towards government performance will also play critical roles.
Slovenian Parliamentary Election Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Freedom Movement (GS) led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) at 26%.
Freedom Movement (GS) held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Freedom Movement (GS), Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 47.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Freedom Movement (GS)
99.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Slovenian Democratic Party wins the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes.
For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.
PolymarketParliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Slovenian National Assembly (Državni zbor) election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Slovenian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Slovenian government, specifically the Slovenian Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (dvk-rs.si/). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
