Live prediction market odds for Thailand Legislative Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-08
This market resolved on 2026-02-08. Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Bhumjaithai Party (BJT)WINNER | 98% | 100% |
Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) | 4% | 50% |
Pheu Thai Party (PT) | 2% | 50% |
United Thai Nation Party (UTN) | 2% | 50% |
Democrat Party (DP) | 1% | 50% |
Kla Tham Party (KT) | 1% | 50% |
People’s Party (PPLE) | 1% | 50% |
Thailand Legislative Election Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) at 27%, Pheu Thai Party (PT) at 26%, United Thai Nation Party (UTN) at 26%.
Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Bhumjaithai Party (BJT), Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) at 27% and Pheu Thai Party (PT) at 26% and United Thai Nation Party (UTN) at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Bhumjaithai Party (BJT): 98¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP): 4¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Pheu Thai Party (PT): 2¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. United Thai Nation Party (UTN): 2¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Bhumjaithai Party (BJT)
99.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the Bhumjaithai Party wins the 2026 Thailand House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes.
For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.
