Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the Tony Award for Best Musical?

Accepted Answer

Odds are affected by critical reviews, audience reception, and box office performance of the nominated musicals. Additionally, industry buzz and predictions from theater experts can sway market sentiment.

Question 2

How do prediction markets work for events like the Tony Awards?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of the event's outcome. Prices fluctuate as new information becomes available, reflecting the collective wisdom of market participants.

Question 3

Why is winning the Tony Award for Best Musical significant?

Accepted Answer

Winning the Tony Award can elevate a musical's profile, leading to increased ticket sales and extended runs. It also enhances the reputations of the creators and performers involved, often resulting in future opportunities.

Question 4

What is "Tony Award for Best Musical?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Tony Award for Best Musical is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). The Lost Boys leads at 34% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Schmigadoon at 75%, Titaníque at 26%, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) at 26%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Tony Award for Best Musical?"?

Accepted Answer

The Lost Boys currently leads at 34% implied probability. Behind The Lost Boys, Schmigadoon at 75% and Titaníque at 26% and Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) at 26% are the next closest contenders. The 66.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Tony Award for Best Musical?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: The Lost Boys: 1¢ on Kalshi, 67¢ on Polymarket. Schmigadoon: 99¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Titaníque: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York): 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 66.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that The Lost Boys is at 34%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 34¢ means the market estimates a 34% probability that The Lost Boys will be the outcome. Buying one share at 34¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 194% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	50.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢
Polymarket	70.5%	57¢	84¢	16¢	43¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	50.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢
Polymarket	50.0%	100¢	0¢	100¢	0¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	50.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢
Polymarket	50.0%	100¢	0¢	100¢	0¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	50.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢
Polymarket	50.0%	100¢	0¢	100¢	0¢

Tony Award for Best Musical?

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