Live prediction market odds for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-05-17
This market resolved on 2026-05-17. Arnold Allen was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 77%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa, a key matchup in the mixed martial arts calendar. The outcome could influence rankings and future title shots, making it a pivotal event for both fighters' careers.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Arnold AllenWINNER | 99% | 54% |
Melquizael Costa | 1% | 46% |
This event features two prominent fighters whose performance could impact their rankings and future opportunities in the UFC. Winning could lead to title shots or higher-profile matches.
Prediction markets aggregate real-time betting odds based on public sentiment and expert analysis. As fight night approaches, odds may fluctuate based on fighter conditions, training camps, and public interest.
Factors such as recent fight performance, injuries, and pre-fight training regimens play a crucial role in shaping the odds. Additionally, public sentiment and expert predictions can sway market prices leading up to the event.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Arnold Allen led the market at 77% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Melquizael Costa at 24%.
Arnold Allen held the lead at 77% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Arnold Allen, Melquizael Costa at 24% were the next closest contenders. The 45.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Arnold Allen
76.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Arnold Allen wins the Allen vs Costa professional MMA fight originally scheduled for May 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Allen vs Costa professional MMA fight originally scheduled for May 16, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.
Polymarket