Shutdown / Shut Down leads the “What will EA say during their next earnings call” event at 26.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Acquisition (25.3%), Apex Legends (25.3%), Competition (25.3%), and EA Sports FC (25.3%). A 49.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
What is "What will EA say during their next earnings call?" and why does it matter?
What will EA say during their next earnings call is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Shutdown / Shut Down leads at 26% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Acquisition at 25%, Apex Legends at 25%, Competition at 25%.
What is moving the odds on "What will EA say during their next earnings call?"?
Shutdown / Shut Down currently leads at 26% implied probability. Behind Shutdown / Shut Down, Acquisition at 25% and Apex Legends at 25% and Competition at 25% are the next closest contenders. The 49.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
What are the current odds for "What will EA say during their next earnings call?" across platforms?
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Shutdown / Shut Down: 2¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Acquisition: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Apex Legends: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Competition: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
What does it mean that Shutdown / Shut Down is at 26%?
A price of 26¢ means the market estimates a 26% probability that Shutdown / Shut Down will be the outcome. Buying one share at 26¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 285% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Market Rulebook: What will EA say during their next earnings call?
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
Kalshi
Primary Rule
If Underperformance is said by any Electronic Arts Inc. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Electronic Arts Inc. earnings call (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Edge Cases
Video of the Electronic Arts Inc. earnings call will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the Electronic Arts Inc. earnings call will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details.