Live prediction market odds for What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-28
This market resolved on 2026-02-28. Biden 5+ times was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Biden 5+ timesWINNER | 99% | 100% |
National Guard | 99% | 50% |
Radical Left | 1% | 50% |
Tariff | 1% | 50% |
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Biden 5+ times led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include National Guard at 75%, Radical Left at 26%, Tariff at 26%.
Biden 5+ times held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Biden 5+ times, National Guard at 75% and Radical Left at 26% and Tariff at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Biden 5+ times: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. National Guard: 99¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Radical Left: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Tariff: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Biden 5+ times would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Biden 5+ times
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the White House Press Secretary says Biden at the next Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary (does not include gaggles), then the market resolves to Yes.
Video of the next Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary (does not include gaggles) will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the next Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary (does not include gaggles) will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details.
