Live prediction market odds for What will Trump say in February?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-28
This market resolved on 2026-02-28. Gulf of America was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Gulf of AmericaWINNER | 98% | 100% |
Crypto / Bitcoin | 99% | 50% |
Nine Wars / Ninth War | 1% | 100% |
What will Trump say in February was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Gulf of America led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Crypto / Bitcoin at 75%, Nine Wars / Ninth War at 51%.
Gulf of America held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Gulf of America, Crypto / Bitcoin at 75% and Nine Wars / Ninth War at 51% were the next closest contenders. The 99.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Gulf of America: 98¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Crypto / Bitcoin: 99¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Nine Wars / Ninth War: 1¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. The 99.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Gulf of America would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Crypto / Bitcoin, or a plural or possessive form of Crypto / Bitcoin, is stated by Donald Trump before Mar 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social). Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. Grammatical inflections for plurals and possessives are included (e.g., "immigrant" includes "immigrants" and "immigrant's"), but other tense inflections, hyphenated compounds, and synonyms are not included. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. If the word must be said a minimum number of times, all instances must occur after market issuance.
Gulf of America
99.0% avg
