Live prediction market odds for Which companies added to S&P 500 in Q1 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-31
This market resolved on 2026-03-31. Ciena (CIEN) was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q1 2026. These additions can influence market sentiment and investment strategies, reflecting broader economic trends and sector performance.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Ciena (CIEN)WINNER | 99% | 100% |
Vertiv Holdings (VRT) | 99% | 100% |
Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) | 1% | 50% |
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) |
Companies are evaluated based on market capitalization, liquidity, and their sector representation. Additionally, they must be based in the U.S. and have a positive earnings history.
When a company is added to the S&P 500, it often experiences a surge in demand as index funds and ETFs adjust their holdings. This can lead to a temporary increase in the stock's price.
The S&P 500 is a key benchmark for U.S. equities, representing a broad cross-section of the market. Its performance is closely watched by investors to gauge overall economic health.
Which companies added to S&P 500 in Q1 2026 was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Ciena (CIEN) led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Vertiv Holdings (VRT) at 100%, Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) at 26%, Affirm Holdings (AFRM) at 26%.
Ciena (CIEN) held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Ciena (CIEN), Vertiv Holdings (VRT) at 100% and Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) at 26% and Affirm Holdings (AFRM) at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Vertiv Holdings is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 in the time period Jan 1, 2026 to March 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.
PolymarketThe S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The next rebalance is currently scheduled for March 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that the listed company will be added to the S&P 500 index by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the listed ticker must match the announced ticker added to the index. An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
| 2% |
| 50% |
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) | 2% | 50% |
Pure Storage (PSTG) | 2% | 50% |
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) | 2% | 50% |
Ciena (CIEN)
99.5% avg
