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MarketsWhalesArbTrending
ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 49.5% // +$4950.00

Live prediction market odds for Which songs will be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in march?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Which songs will be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in march?

2026-03-17

About This Market

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Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking which songs will reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in March 2026. Chart performance, streaming numbers, and radio play will heavily influence the odds as the month approaches.

Golden - HUNTR/X leads the “Which songs will be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in march” event at 25.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Man I Need - Olivia Dean (25.3%), Opalite - Taylor Swift (25.3%), Ordinary - Alex Warren (25.3%), and Risk It All - Bruno Mars (25.3%). A 49.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
G-
Golden - HUNTR/XARB
25% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢50¢50¢50¢
MI
Man I Need - Olivia DeanARB
25% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢50¢50¢50¢
O-
Opalite - Taylor SwiftARB
25% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢50¢50¢50¢
O-
Ordinary - Alex WarrenARB
25% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢50¢50¢50¢
RI
Risk It All - Bruno MarsARB
25% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢50¢50¢50¢

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence which songs might reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100?

Factors include streaming numbers, radio airplay, and sales data. Additionally, social media trends and artist promotions can impact a song's popularity.

How often does the Billboard Hot 100 update its rankings?

The Billboard Hot 100 updates its rankings weekly, reflecting the latest data on song performance. This means that odds in prediction markets can change frequently.

What is the significance of a song reaching #1 on the Billboard Hot 100?

Reaching #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 can significantly boost an artist's visibility and sales. It often leads to increased streaming, radio play, and opportunities for future collaborations.

What is "Which songs will be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in march?" and why does it matter?

Which songs will be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in march is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Golden - HUNTR/X leads at 25% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Man I Need - Olivia Dean at 25%, Opalite - Taylor Swift at 25%, Ordinary - Alex Warren at 25%.

What is moving the odds on "Which songs will be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in march?"?

Golden - HUNTR/X currently leads at 25% implied probability. Behind Golden - HUNTR/X, Man I Need - Olivia Dean at 25% and Opalite - Taylor Swift at 25% and Ordinary - Alex Warren at 25% are the next closest contenders. The 49.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Billboard
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oraclebillboard.com
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread49.5%
Platforms2
Candidates

Market Rulebook: Which songs will be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in march?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Opalite is the #1 on Billboard Hot 100, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

**This market and these products have not been endorsed by Billboard. Any references to "Billboard", the "Hot 100," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Billboard and Kalshi.**

Resolution Oracles
Billboard
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of March 21, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oraclebillboard.com
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
5
Leader

Golden - HUNTR/X

25.3% avg

No price history available