Live prediction market odds for Who will attend the State of the Union?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-24
This market resolved on 2026-02-24. Al Green was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Al GreenWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Amy Coney Barrett | 99% | 100% |
Barron Trump | 99% | 100% |
Brett Kavanaugh | 99% | 100% |
Brett M. Kavanaugh | 99% | 100% |
Brooke Rollins | 99% | 100% |
Chris Wright | 99% | 100% |
David Ellison | 99% | 100% |
Doug Burgum | 99% | 100% |
Erika Kirk | 99% | 100% |
Ilhan Omar | 99% | 100% |
Ivanka Trump | 99% | 100% |
Jared Kushner | 99% | 100% |
John Fetterman | 99% | 100% |
Jon Ossoff | 99% | 100% |
Kristi Noem | 99% | 100% |
Nancy Pelosi | 99% | 100% |
Pete Hegseth | 99% | 100% |
Scott Bessent | 99% | 100% |
Susan Collins | 99% | 100% |
Brilyn Hollyhand | 2% | 50% |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 1% | 50% |
Anthony Kennedy | 1% | 50% |
Benjamin Netanyahu | 1% | 50% |
Chris Murphy | 1% | 50% |
Dana White | 1% | 50% |
Delcy Rodriguez | 1% | 50% |
Elon Musk | 1% | 50% |
Gavin Newsom | 1% | 50% |
George Santos | 1% | 50% |
Gianni Infantino | 1% | 50% |
Jensen Huang | 1% | 50% |
Judy Shelton | 1% | 50% |
Kash Patel | 1% | 50% |
Ketanji Brown Jackson | 1% | 50% |
Kevin Warsh | 1% | 50% |
María Corina Machado | 1% | 50% |
Mitch McConnell | 1% | 50% |
Neil Gorsuch | 1% | 50% |
Nicki Minaj | 1% | 50% |
Tucker Carlson | 1% | 50% |
Viktor Orbán | 1% | 50% |
Neil M. Gorsuch | 1% | 50% |
Who will attend the State of the Union was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Al Green led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Amy Coney Barrett at 100%, Barron Trump at 100%, Brett Kavanaugh at 100%.
Al Green held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Al Green, Amy Coney Barrett at 100% and Barron Trump at 100% and Brett Kavanaugh at 100% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Al Green: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Amy Coney Barrett: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Barron Trump: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Brett Kavanaugh: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Al Green would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Jared Kushner attends the 2026 State of the Union Address, then the market resolves to Yes.
Attendance is confirmed if the person is reported present at the event by any Source Agency, including social media posts by the person themselves. Brief appearances or partial attendance count as attendance.
Al Green
99.5% avg
