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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 99.8% // +$9980.00

Live prediction market odds for Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin in 2026?

2026-05-01

About This Market

Share

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin in 2026. The outcome will shape the party's strategy and influence the state's political landscape leading up to the general election.

Sara Rodriguez leads the “Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin in 2026” event at 55.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Brett Hulsey (50.0%), Missy Hughes (50.0%), Kelda Roys (50.0%), and David Crowley (49.9%). A 99.8% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
SR
Sara RodriguezARB
53% Avg
Kalshi25¢
Polymarket90¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
24.5%24¢25¢75¢76¢
PolymarketPolymarket
81.5%73¢90¢10¢27¢
BH
Brett HulseyARB
50% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
99.5%99¢100¢0¢1¢
MH
Missy HughesARB
50% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
99.5%99¢100¢0¢1¢
KR
Kelda RoysARB
50% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
100.0%100¢100¢0¢0¢
DC
David CrowleyARB
50% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
99.5%99¢100¢0¢1¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Sara Rodriguez

Sara Rodriguez is the current Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin, serving since January 2023. Before this, she was a member of the Wisconsin State Assembly from 2021 to 2023. She is running for the Democratic nomination for governor in the 2026 election.

About David Crowley

David Crowley is the current Milwaukee County Executive, having been reelected in April 2024. He previously served three years in the Wisconsin State Assembly, representing the 17th district. He is running for the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in 2026.

About Mandela Barnes

Mandela Barnes is a Democratic politician and former Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin. He served as Wisconsin's 45th Lieutenant Governor from 2019 to 2023 and was the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022. Barnes announced his candidacy for the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election on December 2, 2025, aiming to address issues of affordability and healthcare access.

About Francesca Hong

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Democratic nominee in Wisconsin?

Factors include polling data, candidate endorsements, and fundraising capabilities. Additionally, the political climate and voter sentiment in Wisconsin will play a crucial role.

When is the primary election for the Democratic nominee?

The primary election for the Democratic nominee in Wisconsin is scheduled for May 1, 2026. This date is critical as it determines who will represent the party in the general election.

How do prediction markets work for political events?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of various outcomes, providing insights into public sentiment.

What is "Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin in 2026?" and why does it matter?

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Sara Rodriguez leads at 56% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Brett Hulsey at 50%, Missy Hughes at 50%, Kelda Roys at 50%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin in 2026?"?

Sara Rodriguez currently leads at 56% implied probability. Behind Sara Rodriguez, Brett Hulsey at 50% and Missy Hughes at 50% and Kelda Roys at 50% are the next closest contenders. The 99.8% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Republican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread99.8%
Platforms2
Candidates

Market Rulebook: Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin in 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If David Crowley wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Wisconsin Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Republican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
Francesca Hong is a Democratic state representative from Madison, Wisconsin. She co-owned Morris Ramen, a restaurant in downtown Madison, and is a member of the Wisconsin Legislative Socialist Caucus. She is running for governor in the 2026 election, emphasizing progressive policies for working-class families.
8
Leader

Sara Rodriguez

55.5% avg