Live prediction market odds for Who will be the Democratic nominee for ME-02 in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-01
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Democratic nomination for ME-02 in 2026. This contest is pivotal as it will determine the party's candidate in a key congressional district, influencing the balance of power in the House of Representatives.
Matthew Dunlap leads the “Who will be the Democratic nominee for ME-02 in 2026” event at 51.8% implied probability, followed by Jared Golden at 1.1%. A 86.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Prediction Market Track Record
Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising capabilities, and endorsements. Additionally, local issues and voter sentiment will play a crucial role leading up to the election.
Maine uses a primary election system where registered party members vote to select their nominee. The process can involve caucuses and conventions, depending on party rules.
ME-02 has a history of fluctuating party support, making it a battleground in elections. Its unique demographics and political landscape contribute to its competitiveness.
Who will be the Democratic nominee for ME-02 in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Matthew Dunlap leads at 52% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Jared Golden at 1%.
Matthew Dunlap currently leads at 52% implied probability. Behind Matthew Dunlap, Jared Golden at 1% are the next closest contenders. The 86.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Jared Golden wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 ME-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Matthew Dunlap
51.8% avg
