Live prediction market odds for Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-15 in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-05-01
This market resolved on 2026-05-01. Michael Blake was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 55%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Democratic nominee for NY-15 in 2026. This contest is pivotal as it will influence the party's strategy and representation in a key district, particularly in light of demographic shifts and local issues.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Michael BlakeWINNER | 13% | 98% |
Ritchie Torres | 89% | 12% |
Factors include voter sentiment, local issues, and the candidates' campaign strategies. Additionally, endorsements and fundraising capabilities will play a critical role in shaping the race.
NY-15 is a diverse district that reflects broader urban trends, making it a barometer for the party's appeal. Winning this seat is crucial for maintaining Democratic control in the House.
Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who wager on outcomes, providing a real-time assessment of candidate viability. Changes in odds can indicate shifts in public perception and campaign momentum.
Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-15 in 2026 was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Michael Blake led the market at 55% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Ritchie Torres at 50%.
Michael Blake held the lead at 55% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Michael Blake, Ritchie Torres at 50% were the next closest contenders. The 84.9% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Ritchie Torres wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NY-15 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Michael Blake
55.5% avg
