Live prediction market odds for Who will be the Democratic nominee for VA-02 in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-05-01
This market resolved on 2026-05-01. Elaine Luria was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 94%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Democratic nominee for VA-02 in 2026. This nomination is crucial as it could influence the party's strategy and competitiveness in the upcoming general election, reflecting broader political trends in Virginia.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Elaine LuriaWINNER | 92% | 96% |
Patrick Mosolf | 3% | 99% |
Nicolaus Sleister | 2% | 20% |
Nila Devanath |
Key factors include candidate popularity, fundraising capabilities, and endorsements from influential party members. Additionally, local and national political trends will play a significant role in shaping voter preferences.
Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants to forecast outcomes, with prices reflecting the perceived likelihood of each candidate's success. As new information emerges, such as polling data or candidate announcements, the odds can fluctuate.
Winning the Democratic nomination for VA-02 is critical for establishing a strong candidate in the general election. The outcome could impact the balance of power in Congress, especially if the district is competitive.
Who will be the Democratic nominee for VA-02 in 2026 was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Elaine Luria led the market at 94% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Patrick Mosolf at 51%, Nicolaus Sleister at 11%, Nila Devanath at 2%.
Elaine Luria held the lead at 94% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Elaine Luria, Patrick Mosolf at 51% and Nicolaus Sleister at 11% and Nila Devanath at 2% were the next closest contenders. The 96.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf James Osyf wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 VA-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
| 1% |
James Osyf | 2% | 1% |
Burk Stringfellow | 1% | 1% |
Matt Strickler | 1% | 1% |
Elaine Luria
94.0% avg
