Live prediction market odds for Who will be the Republican nominee for KY-04?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-05-01
This market resolved on 2026-05-01. Ed Gallrein was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Republican nomination for KY-04 ahead of the 2026 election. The outcome will influence the party's strategy and competitiveness in the general election, making it a focal point for political analysts and voters alike.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Ed GallreinWINNER | 100% | 100% |
Thomas Massie | 0% | 50% |
Nicole Lee Ethington | 0% | 50% |
Factors include candidate polling data, fundraising capabilities, and endorsements from key party figures. Additionally, local issues and voter sentiment in Kentucky will play a crucial role.
The Republican primary for KY-04 is scheduled for May 1, 2026. This date is significant as it determines the party's candidate for the general election.
Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who wager on outcomes, providing insights into perceived candidate viability. As new information emerges, such as debates or campaign events, the odds can shift rapidly.
Who will be the Republican nominee for KY-04 was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Ed Gallrein led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Thomas Massie at 25%, Nicole Lee Ethington at 25%.
Ed Gallrein held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Ed Gallrein, Thomas Massie at 25% and Nicole Lee Ethington at 25% were the next closest contenders. The 49.9% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Nicole Lee Ethington wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 KY-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Ed Gallrein
99.9% avg
