Live prediction market odds for Who will Trump name during the State of the Union address?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-02
This market resolved on 2026-03-02. Biden was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
BidenWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Charlie Kirk | 99% | 100% |
Kushner | 99% | 100% |
Marco / Rubio | 99% | 100% |
Witkoff | 99% | 100% |
Thune | 99% | 50% |
Obama | 1% | 100% |
Bessent | 1% | 50% |
Bibi / Netanyahu | 1% | 50% |
Clinton | 1% | 50% |
Elon / Musk | 1% | 50% |
Hegseth | 1% | 50% |
Homan | 1% | 50% |
Howard / Lutnick | 1% | 50% |
Karoline / Leavitt | 1% | 50% |
Kash / Patel | 1% | 50% |
Lincoln | 1% | 50% |
Monroe | 1% | 50% |
Newsom / Newscum | 1% | 50% |
Noem | 1% | 50% |
Pam / Bondi | 1% | 50% |
Pocahontas | 1% | 50% |
President Xi | 1% | 50% |
Prince Mohammed | 1% | 50% |
Putin | 1% | 50% |
Reagan | 1% | 50% |
Schumer | 1% | 50% |
Walz | 1% | 50% |
Zelenskyy | 1% | 50% |
Zohran / Mamdani | 1% | 50% |
Who will Trump name during the State of the Union address was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Biden led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Charlie Kirk at 100%, Kushner at 100%, Marco / Rubio at 100%.
Biden held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Biden, Charlie Kirk at 100% and Kushner at 100% and Marco / Rubio at 100% were the next closest contenders. The 99.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Biden: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Charlie Kirk: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Kushner: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Marco / Rubio: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. The 99.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Biden would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Donald Trump says Bessent as part of 2026 State of the Union, then the market resolves to Yes.
Video of the 2026 State of the Union will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the 2026 State of the Union will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event. Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream will not count. Previous recordings aired during this event will not count.
Biden
99.5% avg
