Live prediction market odds for Who will win the Lyon mayoral election?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-05-22
This market resolved on 2026-05-22. Grégory Doucet was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Lyon mayoral election held on May 22, 2026. This election is crucial as it will determine the leadership and future policies of one of France's major cities, impacting local governance and political dynamics.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Grégory DoucetWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Alexandre Dupalais | 1% | 50% |
Anaïs Belouassa-Cherifi | 1% | 50% |
Jean-Michel Aulas |
The Lyon mayoral election will shape the city's leadership and policy direction for the coming years. It is a key event in French local politics, reflecting broader national trends.
Prediction markets provide insights into public sentiment and potential outcomes based on real-time data. They can affect candidate strategies and voter engagement as the election date approaches.
Factors such as candidate popularity, campaign strategies, and current political issues will influence the odds. Additionally, local economic conditions and voter turnout can also play significant roles.
Who will win the Lyon mayoral election was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Grégory Doucet led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Alexandre Dupalais at 26%, Anaïs Belouassa-Cherifi at 26%, Jean-Michel Aulas at 26%.
Grégory Doucet held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Grégory Doucet, Alexandre Dupalais at 26% and Anaïs Belouassa-Cherifi at 26% and Jean-Michel Aulas at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Grégory Doucet wins the Lyon mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.
PolymarketThe 2026 Lyon municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Lyon, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election. If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).
| 1% |
| 50% |
Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert | 1% | 50% |
Grégory Doucet
99.5% avg
