Live prediction market odds for 2026 Oscars Best Actor. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Opinion.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / Opinion
Resolved 2026-03-15
This market resolved on 2026-03-15. Michael B. Jordan was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars. This prestigious award influences industry recognition and can significantly impact the careers of the nominees involved.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
Michael B. JordanWINNER | 99% | 100% | — |
Timothée Chalamet | 1% | 50% | 51% |
Brendan Fraser | 1% | 50% | — |
Channing Tatum | 1% | 50% | — |
Colin Farrell | 1% | 50% | — |
Daniel Day-Lewis | 1% | 50% | — |
Dwayne Johnson | 1% | 50% | — |
Ethan Hawke | 1% | 50% | — |
George Clooney | 1% | 50% | — |
Hugh Jackman | 1% | 50% | — |
Jeremy Allen White | 1% | 50% | — |
Jesse Plemons | 1% | 50% | — |
Leonardo DiCaprio | 1% | 50% | — |
Paul Mescal | 1% | 50% | — |
Wagner Moura | 1% | 50% | — |
Odds are influenced by factors such as critical acclaim, box office performance, and award season momentum. Additionally, previous accolades and public perception of performances play a crucial role.
The 2026 Oscars ceremony is scheduled for March 15, 2026. This date is key for industry professionals and fans alike as it marks a major event in the entertainment calendar.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. Prices fluctuate based on the perceived likelihood of winning, reflecting collective sentiment and expert analysis.
2026 Oscars Best Actor was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion). Michael B. Jordan led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Timothée Chalamet at 26%, Brendan Fraser at 26%, Channing Tatum at 26%.
Michael B. Jordan held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Michael B. Jordan, Timothée Chalamet at 26% and Brendan Fraser at 26% and Channing Tatum at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 50.4% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Leonardo DiCaprio has won Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.
PolymarketThe Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Michael B. Jordan
99.5% avg
