Live prediction market odds for 2026 Oscars Best Picture. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-03-01
A House of Dynamite leads the “2026 Oscars Best Picture” event at 25.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Avatar: Fire and Ash (25.5%), It Was Just an Accident (25.5%), Jay Kelly (25.5%), and No Other Choice (25.5%). A 49.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
2026 Oscars Best Picture is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). A House of Dynamite leads at 26% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Avatar: Fire and Ash at 26%, It Was Just an Accident at 26%, Jay Kelly at 26%.
A House of Dynamite currently leads at 26% implied probability. Behind A House of Dynamite, Avatar: Fire and Ash at 26% and It Was Just an Accident at 26% and Jay Kelly at 26% are the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: A House of Dynamite: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Avatar: Fire and Ash: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. It Was Just an Accident: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Jay Kelly: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 26¢ means the market estimates a 26% probability that A House of Dynamite will be the outcome. Buying one share at 26¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 285% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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A House of Dynamite
25.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Wicked: For Good has won Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.
