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MarketsArbWhalesTrending

Live prediction market odds for 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Opinion.

Kalshi / Polymarket / Opinion

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

2026-06-03

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election. This election will determine the city's leadership and influence policies on key issues such as urban development and public safety.

Chong Won-oh leads the “2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner” event at 73.9% implied probability. Other contenders include Oh Se-hoon (14.1%), Seo Young-kyo (3.2%), Park Ju-min (6.9%), and Na Kyung-won (1.6%). A 23.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
No price history available

Live Markets

3 platforms
CW
Chong Won-oh
74% Avg
Kalshi82¢
Polymarket83¢
Opinion83¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
81.5%81¢82¢18¢19¢
PolymarketPolymarket
82.0%81¢83¢17¢19¢
OpinionOpinion
58.5%34¢83¢17¢66¢
OS
Oh Se-hoonARB
14% Avg
Kalshi14¢
Polymarket13¢
Opinion20¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
13.0%12¢14¢86¢88¢
PolymarketPolymarket
12.5%12¢13¢87¢88¢
OpinionOpinion
17.5%15¢20¢80¢85¢
SY
Seo Young-kyoARB
3% Avg
Kalshi8¢
Polymarket1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
4.5%1¢8¢92¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.5%0¢1¢100¢100¢
PJ
Park Ju-minARB
7% Avg
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket3¢
Opinion25¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
4.0%2¢6¢94¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.0%3¢3¢97¢98¢
OpinionOpinion
15.0%5¢25¢75¢95¢
NK
Na Kyung-wonARB
2% Avg
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket0¢
Opinion6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
3.0%1¢5¢95¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.0%0¢0¢100¢100¢
OpinionOpinion
3.5%1¢6¢94¢99¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Chong Won-oh

Chong Won-o is the former head of Seongdong District in Seoul. He served three consecutive terms as district chief from 2014 to 2026. He is relevant to the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election as a candidate for the position.

About Oh Se-hoon

Oh Se-hoon is the current Mayor of Seoul, serving his fourth term since July 2022. He previously held the same position from 2006 to 2011 and was a member of the National Assembly from 2000 to 2004. His extensive experience in city governance makes him a prominent candidate in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election.

About Seo Young-kyo

Seo Young-kyo is a four-term member of the National Assembly representing Seoul's Jungnang district. She withdrew from the 2026 Seoul mayoral race in February 2026 to support the Democratic Party's candidate. Her extensive legislative experience and recent mayoral candidacy make her a notable figure in Seoul's political landscape.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election scheduled?

The election is scheduled for June 3, 2026. This date is crucial as it will determine the next mayor of Seoul.

What platforms are tracking the Seoul Mayoral Election?

Polymarket and Kalshi are currently tracking the Seoul Mayoral Election. These platforms provide real-time odds on the candidates.

Why does the Seoul Mayoral Election matter?

The outcome of this election will shape the city's governance and affect policies on urban issues. Leadership changes can lead to shifts in priorities for public services and infrastructure.

What is "2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner" and why does it matter?

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion). Chong Won-oh leads at 74% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Oh Se-hoon at 12%, Seo Young-kyo at 3%, Park Ju-min at 3%.

What is moving the odds on "2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner"?

Chong Won-oh currently leads at 74% implied probability. Behind Chong Won-oh, Oh Se-hoon at 12% and Seo Young-kyo at 3% and Park Ju-min at 3% are the next closest contenders. The 23.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
OpinionOpinion
Opinion AI
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread23.5%
Platforms3
Candidates6
Leader

Chong Won-oh

73.9% avg

Market Rulebook: 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Oh Se-hoon wins the 2026 Seoul mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
OpinionOpinion
Primary Rule

The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Seoul. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.

Resolution Oracles
Opinion AI
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Seoul. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
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