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PicksSmart MoneyArbitragePromos

Live prediction market odds for 2026 US Senate Control. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and PredictIt and Predict.fun.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Get a $35 trading bonus

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / PredictIt / Predict.fun

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2026 US Senate Control

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Democratic Party62¢1.61xPolymarket USRepublican Party39¢2.56xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Democratic Party about a 62.1% chance. Republican Party follows at 38.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Traders give Democratic Party about a 62.1% chance. Republican Party follows at 38.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the 2026 US Senate Control. The outcome will influence legislative priorities and party power dynamics in Congress, making it a pivotal event in the upcoming election cycle.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

5 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
PredictIt
Predict.fun
Best price
DP
Democratic PartyARB
62%
Kalshi62¢
Polymarket US62¢
Polymarket63¢
PredictIt61¢
Predict.fun64¢
Polymarket US1.62x62¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
61.5%61¢62¢38¢39¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
61.8%62¢62¢38¢38¢
PolymarketPolymarket
63.0%62¢63¢37¢38¢
PredictItPredictIt
60.0%60¢61¢39¢40¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
63.5%63¢64¢36¢37¢
RP
Republican PartyARB
39%
Kalshi39¢
Polymarket US39¢
Polymarket38¢
PredictIt40¢
Predict.fun37¢
Kalshi2.56x39¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
38.5%38¢39¢61¢62¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
39.1%39¢39¢61¢61¢
PolymarketPolymarket
38.0%37¢38¢62¢63¢
PredictItPredictIt
40.0%39¢40¢60¢61¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
36.5%36¢37¢63¢64¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictItPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Library of Congress
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.5%
Platforms5
Candidates2
Leader

Democratic Party

62.1% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: 2026 US Senate Control

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

Victory will be determined by the party identification of the President pro tempore of the Senate on February 1, 2027.

Resolution Oracles
Library of Congress
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results. Created At: 2026-03-02T11:59:09.609933641Z

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for Senate control?

Factors include current polling data, candidate popularity, and historical voting trends. Additionally, major national issues and party strategies play a crucial role in shaping voter sentiment.

How does Senate control affect legislation?

Control of the Senate determines which party can set the legislative agenda and influence key votes. This power affects everything from budget decisions to judicial appointments.

When will the election for Senate control take place?

The election for Senate control will occur on November 3, 2026. This date is significant as it coincides with the general election, impacting voter turnout and engagement.

What does the 2026 US Senate Control prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest 2026 US Senate Control odds?

The latest available prices are Democratic Party: 61.5¢ on Kalshi, 63.0¢ on Polymarket, 60.0¢ on PredictIt, 61.8¢ on Polymarket US, 63.5¢ on Predict.fun; Republican Party: 38.5¢ on Kalshi, 38.0¢ on Polymarket, 40.0¢ on PredictIt, 39.1¢ on Polymarket US, 36.5¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily fading Republican Party

Smart Money Consensus$9.1K
$9.1KNo
Smart Traders Split1
1No
Polymarket USBuy No at 61¢

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Democratic Party
Yes-$4.0K · 1 whale
Republican Party
No$9.1K · 1 whale

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Smart Money Feed
Full Feed

Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $193K lifetime bet $9.2K on No at 62¢

5h ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $279K lifetime bet $2.9K on Yes at 62¢

8h ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $340K lifetime sold $617 of Yes at 63¢

15h ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $337K lifetime sold $6.1K of Yes at 63¢

23h ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $266K lifetime bet $915 on Yes at 62¢

1d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Trade on Polymarket US →

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Democrats Hit 59% for 2026 Senate as Crypto Bill Fails and FBI HearingThree Republican stumbles in 72 hours pushed Democratic Senate odds up 8 points. Schumer's PAC has now committed $30M to Michigan alone.Sep 17, 2026Democrats Climb to 49% as Senate Control Volume Hits 5x Baseline$238K traded on Aug 17, five times the weekly baseline. Democrats gained 1 percentage point while Republicans hold a 56% composite lead.Aug 18, 2026