Live prediction market odds for 2026 Winter Olympics: Most Gold Medals. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-22
This market resolved on 2026-02-22. Norway was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
NorwayWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Austria | 1% | 50% |
Canada | 1% | 50% |
France | 1% | 50% |
Germany | 1% | 50% |
Italy | 1% | 50% |
Japan | 1% | 50% |
Netherlands | 1% | 50% |
Sweden | 1% | 50% |
Switzerland | 1% | 50% |
United States | 1% | 50% |
2026 Winter Olympics: Most Gold Medals was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Norway led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Austria at 26%, Canada at 26%, France at 26%.
Norway held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Norway, Austria at 26% and Canada at 26% and France at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Norway: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Austria: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Canada: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. France: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Norway would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Norway
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Canada finishes with most gold medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics, then the market resolves to Yes.
If multiple participants are tied for the achievement, "Yes" holder will receive $1 divided by the number of tie participants, rounded down to the nearest cent, and "No" holders receive $1 minus the Yes payout.
